Gerry McNamara is stepping into a Syracuse job that carries the weight of a proud past and the pressure of a program looking for its footing. The expectation is simple enough: win now. The reality, at least in the first year, is a lot messier.
That’s the backdrop as McNamara takes over in a college basketball landscape that has been defined lately by turnover, quick fixes and, in some cases, immediate results. Over the last four seasons of the NIL era, 249 new coaches have opened a season at Division I schools. At the high-major level, the sample narrows to 40 first-year head coaches, and that group offers a useful baseline for what Syracuse can reasonably expect.
Those 40 coaches combined for a 752-559 record overall and went 329-380 in conference play. On average, a first-year high-major coach finished 19-14 and 8-10 in league games. Sixteen of those coaches - 40% - reached the NCAA Tournament, with three making the round of 32, seven getting to the Sweet 16, two advancing to the Elite Eight and the rest falling in the opening round.
The ACC, though, has recently looked a little different from the rest of the high-major world. New coaches in that league have been outperforming the broader field, and the trend has picked up speed.
Over the past four years, 11 first-year ACC head coaches have put together a 223-150 record overall and a 120-92 mark in conference play. That works out to an average finish of 20-14 and 11-8, typically good for sixth or seventh place. Adrian Autry fit that group when he went 20-12 and 11-9 in ACC play in 2023-24, his best season at Syracuse.
The improvement has been especially noticeable in the last two cycles. The first five ACC hires since 2022 went just 41-59 in league play, a stretch that included Jon Scheyer’s 14-6 debut at Duke, Kenny Payne’s 2-18 season at Louisville, Autry’s 11-9 year at Syracuse, Micah Shrewsberry’s 7-13 start at Notre Dame and Damon Stoudamire’s 7-13 debut at Georgia Tech.
Then the league flipped. The next six first-year hires all finished with winning ACC records. That group included Andy Enfield at SMU at 13-7, Pat Kelsey at Louisville at 18-2, Ryan Odom at Virginia at 15-3, Will Wade at NC State at 10-8, Jai Lucas at Miami at 13-5 and Luke Loucks at Florida State at 10-8.
That surge matters for McNamara because it changes the bar. A first-year coach in a Power Four job still isn’t a lock to hit the NCAA Tournament - only 40% of those coaches did over the last four years - and the average conference record still came in below .500. But the recent ACC pattern suggests there is room for a faster climb if everything clicks.
For Syracuse, the math gives McNamara two different targets. Hitting 19 wins and eight conference victories would put him right around the high-major first-year average. Matching what the ACC has done lately would mean something stronger: a winning record in league play.
Syracuse hired McNamara with the hope that he can restore national relevance. The numbers say an instant turnaround is no sure thing. They also show that, in this league right now, it is possible.
In Other News...
Syracuse Lost A Champion Whose Legacy Reaches Far Beyond Football
Gerhard H. Schwedes, the Syracuse University football standout who helped steer the program to its only national championship, died Aug. 23 at his home in Fayetteville, New York. A 1959 captain and All-American, Schwedes was central to an undefeated Orange season that ended with a Cotton Bowl victory, a standard the program still measures itself against all these years later.
Schwedes impact went well beyond that title run. He went on to play professionally in the AFL, later served in the U.S. Army and was inducted into the Greater Syracuse Sports Hall of Fame in 2014, a reminder that his legacy was built on more than one celebrated fall in Orange. [Read more 🡒]
Syracuses First Depth Chart Just Raised Real Opener Questions
Syracuses first depth chart for the season opener against New Hampshire did more than map out the early pecking order. It also offered an immediate reminder that Week 1 can be as much about availability as it is about evaluation, with running back JuJuan Johnson likely to be held out even though he has been cleared to play. Ahmad Miller is expected to suit up, but the injury situation around him leaves the Orange with some uncertainty behind the line of scrimmage.
Tylik Hill or Matthew Ouetten now looks positioned to get the start at running back, while several other names, including Tyshawn Russell and Justus Ross-Simmons, were left off the chart because of injury or playing status. On the other side of the ball, Syracuse appears set to open in a 4-2-5 look with a few new starters in the mix, which makes the first game a useful early test not just of depth, but of how quickly the Orange can settle into the roles it wants before the competition gets tougher. [Read more 🡒]
Fran Brown Hinted At Two Syracuse Questions Still Hanging Over Week 1
Fran Brown met with the media ahead of Syracuses season opener against New Hampshire and spent much of the session reinforcing the same themes that have defined his early tenure: culture, role definition and a roster that looks more settled than it did a year ago. He praised the staffs work in building the team and pointed to sophomore defensive back Demetres Samuel Jr. as one of the players making real progress as camp turns into game week.
The bigger immediate questions are on the depth chart. Transfer running back JuJuan Johnson is expected to sit out the opener as a precaution, and the backup quarterback spot remains unsettled with Amari Odom and Malachi Nelson still competing for the job. Browns comments suggested the Orange are close to final answers, but not quite there yet, which leaves a few important details unresolved as Syracuse gets ready for Week 1. [Read more 🡒]