Week 1 didn’t just shake up scoreboards. It sent ESPN’s FPI computer into overdrive, and a handful of teams saw their outlooks swing hard after one game.
Among the biggest risers, the Bruins made the cleanest statement. Their 45-24 win over Cal was enough to catch the attention of ESPN’s metrics, which now give them a 3.1% chance to make the CFP. That number may feel a little early, but it still marked a notable jump for the Bruins.
The Bulldogs also climbed fast after a runaway performance against Louisiana-Monroe. Kamario Taylor threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the blowout, and ESPN’s updated model now has the Bulldogs at a 3.7% shot at the CFP. That comes with the odd reality that they’re still ranked 13th in their own conference.
Syracuse joined the list despite not facing an FBS opponent. The Orange crushed New Hampshire 66-3, and the computer clearly liked the 513-159 yardage margin. That was enough to push Syracuse toward the middle of the ACC pack, with a 2.0% chance to reach the CFP.
On the other side of the ledger, Rutgers took a brutal hit. A 16-point loss to a 29.5-point underdog that went 0-12 last year sent the Scarlet Knights tumbling in the FPI. They’re now 96th, last among power four teams, and ESPN gives them just a 4.1% chance to win six games.
Clemson’s slide was nearly as ugly. The Tigers dropped from 19th to 42nd after LSU handed them a 51-10 beating, and ESPN still isn’t fully done with them yet. The model gives Clemson a 2.8% chance to make the CFP, but also a 58.8% chance to get to six wins, which leaves plenty of room for a rough season.
North Carolina State also had a rough opening week, falling 34-8 at Virginia. The Wolfpack avoided the ACC basement, but the numbers still don’t look good: ESPN gives them a 40.2% chance to win six games. That’s not the kind of start Dave Doeren wanted.
In Other News...
Syracuse Just Made A Strong Recruiting Impression On Another Running Back Prospect
Kade Gibbs trip to Syracuse came during a lopsided 66-3 win over New Hampshire, but the freshman running back prospect from Spring Grove High School still found plenty to notice beyond the scoreboard. The 2029 recruit liked what he saw from the Orange, especially the way the running game looked, and he also spent time with several coaches, including Fran Brown, during the visit.
For Syracuse, the timing of that impression matters. Gibbs already holds an offer from the Orange, and he has made clear he has real interest in the program, so a positive campus stop only adds to the momentum. He also arrived with some confidence of his own after reporting good progress in his high school season, which gives Syracuse another promising name to keep tracking as the recruiting picture continues to take shape. [Read more 🡒]
Syracuse Faces A New Offensive Dilemma Before ACC Opener
Fran Brown gave Syracuse a useful dose of optimism as the Orange turn toward their ACC opener against California, saying fifth-year wide receiver Justus Ross-Simmons is expected to be available after sitting out the season opener. The timing matters for an offense that was already navigating personnel questions, especially with running backs JuJuan Johnson and Ahmad Miller also expected back after missing the first game.
Brown also pointed to the long-term picture, noting that freshmen Calvin Russell III and Tedarius Hughes are working back from injuries and could be in the mix in the coming weeks. For Syracuse, the challenge now is less about simply getting bodies back and more about sorting out how quickly the offense can settle in once a few key pieces finally rejoin the rotation. [Read more 🡒]
Syracuse May Have Found A Way To Make The Dome Matter More
Syracuse spent Saturday trying to turn the JMA Wireless Dome into more than just the place where the Orange play football. The university rolled out changes to the game-day experience, opening the area three hours before kickoff and adding touches like a T-shirt cannon in an effort to make the pregame build-up feel bigger, louder and more connected to the game itself. The goal is simple enough: get more students involved, create a more family-friendly atmosphere and give fans a reason to arrive early instead of just showing up for kickoff.
The timing mattered, too, with Syracuse taking care of New Hampshire on the field while the school tested a different approach to the day around it. The hope is that if the Dome feels more welcoming and more alive before the opening whistle, it can start to draw larger crowds for the games still to come. For a program that knows how much home-field energy can matter, this was a small but meaningful step toward making the building feel like an event again. [Read more 🡒]