The NL Central might not be the most intimidating division in baseball, but it’s certainly intriguing. As we look ahead, the Cubs and Brewers appear poised to lead the pack, with the second-place finisher potentially snagging a Wild Card spot.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have made some savvy offseason moves that could propel them into the middle of the standings. The Reds, a playoff team last year, face new challenges, and the Cardinals, despite a roster teardown, have some pieces to build around.
The Cardinals are entering a rebuild, and while many predict they’ll finish at the bottom, the division's last three spots are still up for grabs. They’ve avoided major injuries so far, unlike the Reds, who are dealing with a significant setback.
Right-hander Hunter Greene is set for elbow surgery, sidelining him until at least July. This echoes the kind of surgery Adam Wainwright underwent in his career, though his were fortunately offseason.
Greene’s absence could reshape the NL Central landscape, offering the Cardinals a glimmer of opportunity. With key players like Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Brendan Donovan no longer in St. Louis, fans might wonder how this impacts their chances.
The Pirates have positioned themselves well, thanks to strategic offseason enhancements to their pitching staff. The Reds, despite a quiet winter, have a history of bouncing back under Terry Francona’s leadership. On paper, the Cardinals might seem like the weakest link, but they might surprise us.
Optimistically, the Cardinals could win between 75-77 games, a mark slightly above some preseason predictions. Fangraphs projects them to finish last with 75 wins, while the Reds are pegged at fourth with a 78-84 record.
The Cubs and Brewers are likely to dominate the top two spots, with the Pirates potentially securing third. The Reds’ situation, however, might make them more vulnerable, especially without Greene.
There’s a case to be made that the Reds overachieved last year, and with Greene out, the Cardinals might just have a shot at surpassing them. For this to happen, several factors need to align: JJ Wetherholt must live up to expectations, Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson need to replicate last year’s success, Dustin May has to stay healthy, and Matthew Liberatore must emerge as the ace.
If these pieces fall into place, the Cardinals could exceed expectations, while the Reds might struggle without their star pitcher. This scenario could see the Cardinals climbing out of the division cellar.
The Reds and Cardinals share some similarities, both boasting promising young talent. However, the Reds have Greene and Elly De La Cruz as cornerstones, giving them a slight edge. With Greene sidelined, though, the gap narrows, making the Cardinals’ pitching staff more competitive with Cincinnati’s.
In this unpredictable division, the Cardinals might just find a way to avoid the bottom for the second time in four years. How the Reds adapt without Greene will be crucial. They remain a potential threat, but without their ace, they could become more vulnerable.