The Reds have a chance to turn Tyler Stephenson into exactly the kind of return that can reshape a deadline. Cincinnati has a pile of useful expiring pieces it can move before the August 3 trade deadline, and if the front office plays it right, the payoff could be a haul of young talent that actually matters.
Stephenson is one of the most intriguing chips on the board. On the surface, his .238/.319/.361 line doesn’t jump off the page, but there’s a team out there that needs catching help badly enough to look past the surface. That team is the Yankees.
New York is searching for a right-handed-hitting catcher to help its lineup, and the situation behind the plate has become ugly. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Austin Wells’ 42 wRC+ is the second-worst mark in the league.
Wells missed about two weeks after going on the IL with cervical headaches in early June, and the hope was that he’d come back swinging better. Instead, since returning on June 21, he has been even colder, hitting .122/.140/.265 for a 4 wRC+.
The Yankees have been linked to Hunter Goodman of the Rockies and Ryan Jeffers of the Twins, but Bob Nightengale reported that Colorado is not planning to trade Goodman and Minnesota does not intend to move Jeffers unless it falls out of the race. The Twins are currently three games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central and tied with the Seattle Mariners for the final AL wild card spot at 48-49.
That leaves New York with a problem and not many clean answers. If the Yankees get desperate enough, Nick Krall could pick up the phone, call Brian Cashman, and set the terms.
Stephenson’s 86 wRC+ is nowhere near the level of Jeffers’ 162 or Goodman’s 118, but he brings more to the table than a plain stat line suggests. He has a history of being an above-average offensive catcher, and his underlying numbers hint that this season has been better than it looks.
His .429 xSLG is well above his actual slugging mark. He’s averaging 90.5 miles per hour in exit velocity, which sits in the 72nd percentile, and his 44.6% hard-hit rate ranks in the 69th percentile. Pair that with a 40.4% launch angle sweet spot percentage, good for the 94th percentile, and the case gets stronger that he’s been unlucky while still making quality contact.
The expected metrics back that up too. Stephenson’s .304 wOBA is modest, but his .331 xwOBA points to an above-average bat.
He also brings elite work behind the plate. Stephenson ranks in the 100th percentile in pitch blocking runs, a clear edge over Wells, who has been slightly above average in that area.
If Cincinnati wanted to push this deal into real payoff territory, the Yankees do have pieces the Reds could use. New York’s pitching depth is obvious, and its system also includes outfield talent, which is something Cincinnati needs.
Spencer Jones would be the dream target, but that does not sound realistic. It was reported last year that he was untouchable in trades for anyone other than Paul Skenes.
A more plausible name is Jace Avina, a 23-year-old in Double-A who is hitting .269/.357/.535 with 17 home runs and could be nearing a promotion to Triple-A. Originally drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021, Avina is the Yankees’ No. 19 prospect and could be in line to make his major league debut in 2027.
If the Reds could also get an arm such as Kyle Carr or Cade Smith from the middle of the Yankees’ prospect list, the return could make sense for both sides: New York gets help at its biggest weakness, and Cincinnati adds close-to-MLB-ready talent to the system.
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Cardinals Just Sent Another Troubling Message About Their Pitching Pipeline
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Nezs exit fits into a broader picture that has been hard to ignore in the system lately, especially for a pitcher who once gave the Cardinals a live arm to dream on. The organization also added Trey Pooser to Peoria after acquiring him from the Rays as the player to be named later in the Chris Roycroft trade, another reminder that St. Louis keeps cycling through arms in search of something more reliable. For now, the pipeline is still producing movement, but not much certainty. [Read more 🡒]