Leo Bernal’s rise into MLB Pipeline’s top 100 has given the Cardinals another real path to a Prospect Promotion Incentive bonus next season, and it comes at a time when St. Louis suddenly has more than one shot to make that system work in its favor.
For a while, JJ Wetherholt looked like the obvious Cardinals ticket to a future extra draft pick through MLB’s PPI system if he had won National League Rookie of the Year. That still mattered, but Bernal’s new placement changes the picture. The catcher now only needs to land on either Baseball America’s or ESPN’s top 100 to meet the weird but very real requirement for draft compensation tied to Rookie of the Year success.
It is a strange setup, but that is the rule: a player has to be ranked in the top 100 on two of the three major national prospect lists - MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN - to qualify. Bernal has one box checked now, and if another outlet follows suit, he becomes a legitimate PPI candidate for St. Louis.
That possibility matters because Bernal looks like a strong contender for the NL Rookie of the Year race in 2027. Nobody can promise an award like that, of course. Wetherholt’s own rookie season showed how quickly things can shift, with his production fading in the second half, likely because of his wrist injury, while the rest of the NL rookie class stayed strong.
Next year’s field is still wide open, but there are already names that could end up in the mix, including Dodgers outfielders Josue De Paula and Mike Sirota, Padres catcher Ethan Salas, and Marlins lefty Thomas White. There will be plenty of other rookies in the race too. Even so, Bernal belongs near the top of the Cardinals’ list of possible award threats, especially with Joshua Baez also in the picture.
Bernal’s brief time in St. Louis has only strengthened that case.
In 16 games entering play Saturday, he was hitting .323/.362/.508 with three home runs and 15 RBI. His 141 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR already stand out, and the combination is easy to see: real impact with the bat and quality work behind the plate.
It would be a stretch to expect Bernal to keep hitting at that level in 2027, but the underlying profile is loud. Outside of his walk rate, his Baseball Savant page is loaded with red. He has been getting better at driving the baseball as he moves through the system, and even if he settles in as merely a good hitter, his defense at catcher could make him tough to beat in a rookie race.
The Cardinals already have one of the better farm systems in baseball, but that has not stopped them from continuing to add talent. Over the last 15 months, multiple trades during last offseason’s rebuild-focused stretch helped deepen the system further. They will keep looking for prospects in deals, but as the club pushes toward contention, draft picks will matter more and more - and the more selections they have, the more chances they get to hit on one.
For now, Bernal looks like as good a bet as anyone in the 2027 class to put St. Louis in position for that extra pick.
In Other News...
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Peetes strong stretch has been highlighted by a five-hit game in the Texas League Championship Series, the kind of performance that can quickly change how a trade is remembered around a front office. Donovan, meanwhile, has been limited to 39 games for the Mariners this season because of injuries, which only adds to the sense that the Cardinals may have found more long-term value than they first appeared to be giving up. [Read more 🡒]
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Nolan Gorman, Jos Pags and Ryan Stanek are among the names being mentioned as possible departures as the front office weighs performance against long-term fit. For a club trying to move forward without getting stuck in the middle, those are the kinds of decisions that can turn an ordinary winter into a ruthless one, with Bloom forced to decide which pieces still belong in the next version of the Cardinals and which ones do not. [Read more 🡒]
Ivan Herrera's Cardinals Future Suddenly Looks Far Less Certain
Ivan Herrera entered the season with a chance to settle in as part of the Cardinals long-term catching picture, but the year has not exactly gone as planned. He has stayed healthy and continued to get regular playing time in St. Louis, yet the offense has slipped enough to make the situation feel less secure than it did a few months ago.
Leonardo Bernals arrival only adds to the pressure, especially after the rookie has flashed enough at the plate to make him look like a real candidate to take over behind the dish by 2027. Add in the progress of minor league prospects Rainiel Rodriguez and Jesus Baez, and Herreras path no longer looks as clear as it once did. The Cardinals still have time to sort it out, but the competition for catching roles is starting to look very real. [Read more 🡒]