The St. Louis Cardinals are facing a bit of a puzzle in their outfield lineup.
While the organization hasn’t been vocal about it, their actions speak volumes. Thomas Saggese is working on outfield drills, and Ivan Herrera was spotted with John Jay at spring training.
The reason behind these moves? It seems to be Lars Nootbaar.
Nootbaar underwent significant heel surgery this offseason and is still recovering in California. The Cardinals' newly renovated spring training facility lacks the specific treadmill needed for his rehab.
This leaves his readiness for Opening Day in question, prompting the Cardinals to explore various options for their outfield. It’s a strategic shuffle reminiscent of the Dodgers' flexibility, and it’s a bit nerve-wracking for fans.
But there’s a bigger question surrounding Lars Nootbaar. At 27 and set to become a free agent in 2028, what does his future hold with the team?
Nootbaar has a unique appeal, with his charismatic presence both on and off the field. Yet, despite his strong Statcast numbers, his on-field results have been somewhat average.
Whether he remains a long-term left fielder or becomes a potential trade piece is still up in the air.
Where Lars Nootbaar Excels
Lars Nootbaar has been an unexpected gem for the Cardinals, especially considering he was an eighth-round pick. His transformation began with a visit to Driveline Baseball, where he boosted his bat speed, giving him an edge.
His Statcast metrics are impressive, showcasing above-average numbers in exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and more. He hits the ball hard, doesn’t chase pitches, and makes solid contact-an excellent foundation for success.
However, his expected batting average and slugging percentages lag behind the elite, like Juan Soto. While Soto is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, Nootbaar’s numbers suggest he has the potential to elevate his game significantly. The question remains: why isn’t he achieving those results?
The Culprits Behind Nootbaar's Middling Performance
First up, Nootbaar’s batting eye, usually a strength, saw him swinging at more pitches outside the zone while being more selective inside it. This change, combined with struggles against fastballs and sliders, suggests he’s missing opportunities early in counts.
Second, Nootbaar’s lowest career pull percentage indicates he’s not capitalizing on pitches he can drive. In today’s game, where pitchers throw harder and with more movement, taking advantage of pull opportunities is crucial.
Lastly, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was at its lowest since his rookie year. While league average hovers around .300, his .278 mark suggests he’s not maximizing his contact quality. This could be tied to not pulling pitches he should, leading to missed opportunities.
The takeaway? Nootbaar needs to find a balance between patience and aggression.
His ability to make hard contact when he swings is a strong asset. Whether he’s trade bait or a key player for the Cardinals, the path to unlocking his potential lies in swinging the bat more decisively.