Joshua Báez’s first week in the majors has already shown both sides of the coin. He opened his St.
Louis Cardinals career by doing something no one had done before, crushing a record three home runs in his first three trips to the plate. That kind of debut can blow up expectations in a hurry, and it did exactly that.
Since then, though, the ride has come back to earth. Báez has gone 0-for-16 with six strikeouts since launching that third homer, a brutal stretch after the absurd 918 wRC+ he carried out of day one. The follow-up has been rough enough to qualify as a very loud “Welcome to the Show” moment.
That doesn’t change why the Cardinals are so excited about him in the first place. Báez is a top prospect for a reason, and his profile still points to legitimate 30-30 upside at the big-league level. For a 23-year-old, that mix of power and speed is rare, and one cold stretch doesn’t erase it.
Even in the hitless run, there have been a few encouraging signs buried under the strikeouts. Over this three-game stretch after the debut, Báez has still put the ball in the air more than 60% of the time, and his hard-hit rate has been 62.5%. Some of the silence at the plate has also been bad luck catching up to a player who burst out of the gate with three rockets.
The strikeouts, though, are the part that will keep getting attention. That has long been the most obvious vulnerability in his game, and opposing pitchers are going to keep leaning on it.
In Triple-A this season, Báez whiffed and chased pitches out of the zone at the same 34% rate, both marks landing in the 16th percentile among qualified hitters at that level. His hit tool and pitch recognition remain the big questions, and the jump to the majors only makes those questions sharper.
The Cardinals have seen this movie before. They’ve already helped Jordan Walker clean up his own strikeout issues this season, and that work has fueled an All-Star nod and a breakout that changed the conversation around him. Báez may need time to settle in too, but there’s no reason to think the organization can’t help him sort it out.
What this stretch should really do is cool off the noise. Báez is not a shortcut to a championship, and he is not about to carry the Cardinals by himself in 2026. He’s a rookie living through the full swing of a wild debut week, and that’s exactly what it should be: a rollercoaster, not a verdict.
In Other News...
Cardinals Top Prospect Is Creating A Catcher Debate Earlier Than Expected
Rainiel Rodriguez is starting to force a conversation the Cardinals probably hoped to put off for a while. The 19-year-old catcher has made real noise since moving up to Double-A Springfield, where his bat has taken another step forward and added some intrigue to a position that already has Ivan Herrera, Jimmy Crooks and Pedro Pages in the mix.
The organization is still not looking at Rodriguez as a big-league option this season, which is part of what makes the early progress so notable. Even so, the way he is handling tougher pitching has only sharpened the long view on his future, with his timetable now looking more like a potential 2027 arrival if this climb keeps going in the right direction. [Read more 🡒]
Alec Burleson Is Giving The Cardinals More Than Just RBIs
Alec Burleson has already given the Cardinals plenty in the middle of the order, but his work at first base is starting to matter just as much. The traditional numbers have long painted him as a below-average defender, yet there is a different picture underneath the surface this season, one that suggests St. Louis may be getting more value out of him than his RBI total alone would indicate.
Receiving Outs Above Average has Burleson atop the majors for handling throws at first, a notable shift for a player whose reputation had been built almost entirely on his bat. For a Cardinals club looking for every edge it can find, that kind of steadying presence matters, because it means Burleson is helping the lineup and helping the infield in ways his box score line does not fully capture. [Read more 🡒]