Dustin May Joins Cardinals: Can St. Louis Unlock His Former Top Prospect Form?
The Cardinals are taking a calculated swing this offseason, signing right-hander Dustin May to a one-year deal. It’s the kind of low-risk, high-upside move that could pay off handsomely - if they can tap into the potential that once made May one of the most electric young arms in the game.
May, 28, is no stranger to hype. His combination of velocity and movement once had scouts buzzing and hitters flailing.
But a string of injuries and inconsistent results have clouded that early promise. Now, after a rocky stint in Boston that ended with a forearm injury, May is getting a fresh start in St.
Louis - and the Cardinals are betting they can help him rediscover the form that made him a staple on Top 100 prospect lists just a few years ago.
The Cardinals’ Rotation Gets a New Look
May is expected to slot directly into the Cardinals’ starting rotation, and that lines up with his workload from last season. He threw a career-high 132 1/3 innings in 2025 - a step forward in durability, but still modest by frontline starter standards. That’s part of the puzzle with May: staying healthy.
From his debut in 2019 through the end of the 2024 season, May had logged fewer than 200 total big-league innings. That’s not a typo.
Multiple injuries - including Tommy John surgery - have interrupted his development and limited his ability to build consistency. And while his arm talent is still evident, the numbers from last season show just how far he’s drifted from his peak.
Before being traded to Boston, May posted a 4.85 ERA and 4.74 FIP across 104 innings with the Dodgers. Things didn’t improve much with the Red Sox - he turned in a 5.40 ERA and 5.39 FIP before the forearm issue shut him down again. That’s a far cry from the dominant force many expected him to become.
What's Gone Wrong - And How the Cardinals Might Fix It
The stuff is still there - at least in flashes. But May’s pitch mix and declining fastball velocity have become red flags.
In 2025, his sinker - once a devastating weapon - got crushed. Opponents slugged .567 off it, with a .405 wOBA.
Even more concerning? The expected metrics were worse.
That sinker used to be a calling card, but after multiple arm injuries, it’s lost some life. Meanwhile, his four-seam fastball, which comes in about a tick faster and carries more vertical ride, was far more effective.
Hitters managed just a .165 average and a .284 wOBA against it. That’s a significant contrast - and a clear sign that May might need to rethink his approach.
It’s not as simple as scrapping the sinker altogether. Big-league hitters are too good, and pitch sequencing still matters.
But dialing back the usage of a pitch that’s actively hurting him could open the door for more of what’s working. His four-seamer posted a -1 run value in 2025, and his sweeper - another promising offering - came in at +3.
Those are encouraging signs.
The challenge for St. Louis will be helping May find the right balance.
If his velocity ticks back up and he leans into his best pitches, there’s a path to real effectiveness here. He’ll need more than two offerings to stick in the rotation long-term, but if the Cardinals’ pitching development group can help him tweak his arsenal - whether that means adjusting his arm slot, reshaping a pitch, or introducing something new - there’s still a high ceiling.
A Project Worth Taking On
Let’s be real: May isn’t the same pitcher he was when he broke in with the Dodgers. Injuries have changed the trajectory of his career. But there’s still a version of him that can get big-league hitters out - and maybe even thrive in the right environment.
The Cardinals are hoping they can unlock that version. Whether they view him as a potential trade chip at the deadline or a longer-term piece, May represents a fascinating project for their revamped pitching development staff. He’s got the tools, the pedigree, and now, a fresh opportunity.
If the Cardinals can keep him healthy and help him refine his approach, this one-year deal could turn into a major win - and maybe even a comeback story worth watching.