The Cubs’ latest October stumble has a way of making the future look a little less stable in Chicago and a lot more promising in St. Louis.
That’s the big takeaway after the Cubs were swept by the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round, adding another quick postseason exit to a stretch that still hasn’t produced an NLCS trip since 2017. Chicago has now made the postseason in back-to-back years after a four-season drought from 2021 through 2024, but the runway everyone expected to see may be shorter than advertised.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are watching a division rival that looks strong on the surface but shaky underneath. St. Louis is not the better team today - the Cubs are - but the Cardinals did take the season series this year, and the longer view is where the picture starts to tilt.
Chicago’s biggest problem is what’s coming next, or more accurately, what isn’t. The Cubs’ farm system has thinned out badly, sitting 26th in Baseball America’s rankings and 28th in MLB Pipeline’s.
St. Louis, by contrast, checks in second and fourth in those same outlets.
That gap matters, especially when a roster is about to turn over.
The Cubs still have National League MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong and a supporting cast that can win games, but the age and contract picture is working against them. Chicago has the fourth-oldest roster in baseball, with several players nearing free agency and others tied to long-term deals that could age poorly. The Cardinals are in a much cleaner spot: the second-youngest roster in MLB and only one impending free agent, Ryne Stanek.
Payroll tells a similar story. St.
Louis had the 25th-highest payroll in 2026, while Chicago ranked seventh. The Cardinals are expected to spend more as they lock in their young core and add help through prospects, free agency, and trades.
The Cubs, though, have work to do just to replace what they’re losing while also trying to upgrade a roster that already fell short.
Pitching is another area where the future looks different in each city. In 2026, the Cardinals actually produced better starting pitching than the Cubs, with St.
Louis finishing just outside the top 10 in ERA, FIP, and fWAR. Chicago landed among the bottom five.
Even more important, the Cardinals have their entire rotation under club control for next season and a pitching pipeline that’s expected to keep producing in the next two years. The Cubs, on the other hand, have to replace Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, and David Peterson, all of whom are headed for free agency, with more arms nearing that point as well.
Velocity only sharpens the contrast. Across MLB, fastball speed hit a record high for the sixth straight season, but both the Cubs and Cardinals were among the worst teams in baseball in that category.
Chicago was last at 93.7 mph, and it has ranked no higher than 26th in fastball velocity since 2018. As M@ Spiegel put it: “This must change.
They can pay for it, & must develop it.”
That leaves the Cubs in a difficult place and the Cardinals in a more encouraging one. Both are chasing the Brewers, a club that continues to set the standard in the division, but the direction of travel looks different.
Chicago feels like a team that may be running out of answers. St.
Louis looks like one that is just getting started.
In Other News...
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For the Cardinals, Nolan Arenados move to Arizona in 2026 became one of those trades that always invites a second look once the season settles in. He still showed why the Diamondbacks were willing to take the chance, putting together a strong start and then finding his best swing again in September, even if the middle months were rough enough to keep the overall picture from feeling clean.
Arenado finished with a .255 average, 30 home runs and a 120 wRC+, a line that still carried real value at the plate. But the deeper indicators were less encouraging, with drops in exit velocity and hard-hit rate hinting that the power production may not be as sturdy as the final totals suggest, which leaves Arizona with hope at third base for now and a decision to sort through later. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Suddenly Have A Real Third Base Question To Watch
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For St. Louis, the timing matters because third base remains one of the clearer long-term questions on the roster. Baez, who piled up 39 home runs and stayed hot in the playoffs with a 1.156 OPS, is starting to look like a legitimate candidate to eventually answer it. The Cardinals are not there yet, but performances like this are the kind that can change how an internal battle looks a year from now. [Read more 🡒]
Cooper Hjerpe Just Gave Cardinals Fans A Bigger Rotation Question
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He ended up appearing in four games during the season, logging a 4.38 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 12.1 innings, all out of the bullpen. Even with the workload still small, the bigger picture is what matters for St. Louis, because Hjerpes unusual delivery and promising arm have already made him a candidate for a future move into the rotation. [Read more 🡒]