The Cardinals may have every reason to sit tight and ask for more if they’re shopping Dustin May.
Friday’s Dean Kremer deal out of Baltimore set the market in a way St. Louis had to notice. The Orioles sent the right-hander to the Twins for outfield prospect Jhomnardo Reyes, a return that says a lot about how much teams are willing to pay for even imperfect starting pitching right now.
Kremer’s case isn’t exactly flashy. He has one year of team control left after this season, is making $5.75 million in arbitration, and hasn’t had a strong year.
In seven starts, he’s carrying a 6.50 ERA, and over the course of his career he’s been more of a back-end starter than anything else. But even with that profile, Minnesota gave up the number 12 prospect in its system, according to Baseball America.
Reyes, only 18, brings a lot of tools to the table. He’s 6'3, with 60-grade power and arm tools, plus above-average speed and fielding ability. The hit tool is still the question, but that kind of upside is exactly why Baltimore could call it a win.
That’s the part the Cardinals have to be watching closely. If Kremer can pull that kind of return, then May’s value should be even stronger.
May has put together a solid year in St. Louis.
Through 21 starts, he owns a 4.38 ERA and 3.14 FIP while striking out 23.1% of the hitters he’s faced. He has already set a career high with 2.6 fWAR and is on track to top his previous high in innings of 132.1.
And the ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. May has allowed two or fewer runs in 12 of his 21 starts, which is 57% of the time.
He’s also had three outings where he gave up six or more earned runs. That’s the rough edge in the profile, but most nights this season, he’s been a very good pitcher.
The underlying performance backs that up. May’s velocity has come back, and his strikeout and walk numbers have improved along with more whiffs and chases on his pitches. He’s not being sold as an ace, but he looks like a middle-of-the-rotation arm who can absolutely fit into a playoff rotation.
That matters in a market where the supply is drying up. The Red Sox, Twins, Astros, Rangers, Padres, and Pirates all ended up buying instead of selling, even though each had been viewed as a possible seller at different points this year. That leaves fewer starting pitchers available, with Tarik Skubal standing as the headline name but realistically out of reach for only a small group of teams.
For the Cardinals, that opens the door. If contenders are scrambling for rotation help, St. Louis can lean into that urgency and push for a stronger return on May.
In Other News...
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