The Cardinals may have gotten more than they bargained for from Riley O’Brien in 2026, but that doesn’t mean the late innings were clean. St.
Louis got a full season out of its closer, and the results looked strong on the surface: 38 saves, a strikeout per inning, and a mid-3 ERA in his first fully healthy year. But the back end of the year told a different story, and it’s hard to ignore where the pressure points showed up.
O’Brien’s second half was much rougher. After the All-Star break, he posted a 5.11 ERA and watched his walk rate climb to 14.4%, a dangerous combination for a reliever living on the edge.
He also gave up more home runs in the second half than he did in 15 fewer innings before the break. For a bullpen that already lacked depth, that turned every close game into a much shakier proposition than the Cardinals probably wanted.
The underlying numbers only deepen the concern. FanGraphs’ high-leverage splits showed opponents hitting nearly .700 OPS against O’Brien in those spots, and the trouble often started immediately.
The first batter in an inning hit .747 OPS against him, which meant he was frequently under stress before he could even settle in. Once runners got into scoring position, the damage grew fast: hitters posted a .792 OPS, and O’Brien allowed 32 runs in 22 innings with runners in scoring position.
With two outs, the line didn’t get any prettier, as opponents put up a .756 OPS and a 1.52 WHIP.
That late-season wear and tear is why the idea of shifting O’Brien out of the closer role makes plenty of sense. He proved he can handle major league innings and, at times, dominate them. But a lower-leverage spot could make more sense for both him and the Cardinals, especially if the club wants to protect him from the kind of heavy workload that seemed to catch up with him down the stretch.
There was never much mystery about why the bullpen was left alone in the first place. Chaim Bloom and the front office didn’t treat relief help as a major priority, and that was easier to justify when the Cardinals were supposed to be near the bottom of the league.
Instead, the team spent 2026 pushing beyond those expectations and hanging around the top of the NL Central, while Bloom mostly stood pat after the All-Star break and left Oliver Marmol to work with the bullpen as it was. That left O’Brien in the biggest role, even as the season became more demanding.
Marmol’s job only gets trickier if the front office takes a similar approach this winter. Bloom has already noted that third base is wide open, and with internal options plus a thin free-agent market, the trade market could absorb much of his attention.
If that happens, the bullpen could again be pushed to the background. That would leave Marmol leaning on the same group and, possibly, looking for younger arms to take on the save chances instead of asking O’Brien to keep carrying the load.
In Other News...
Cardinals Bullpen Questions Just Got Bigger Around One Key All-Star
The Cardinals spent the trade deadline reshaping their roster and their future, dealing veteran pieces such as Dustin May, JoJo Romero and Lars Nootbaar to stock the farm system. Through it all, Riley O'Brien stayed put, even with his name floating through trade chatter as one of the clubs most valuable bullpen arms after a season that included an All-Star nod and a share of the National League saves lead.
Kyle Gibson has only added a new wrinkle to that conversation by suggesting on a podcast that O'Brien could surface as a trade candidate this offseason. St. Louis does control the closer through 2030, which gives the club plenty of leverage, but it also leaves the Cardinals facing another familiar bullpen question: whether to keep building around a proven late-inning arm or use his value to help accelerate the next phase of the roster shuffle. [Read more 🡒]
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There is also another Cardinals connection in the mix. Randy Flores, St. Louis assistant general manager, is viewed as a candidate for the Angels front-office job, which only adds to the possibility that this search could wind up circling back to familiar names for Cardinals fans. Pujols has been considered for other managerial openings before, and with the Angels now under Stan Kroenkes ownership, the tie to St. Louis sports makes this one feel a little less far-fetched than it might have a few months ago. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Could Be Near A Tough Nolan Gorman Decision
Nolan Gormans future is one of the more interesting decisions sitting in the Cardinals offseason pile, because the club can keep him around without committing major money, but it also has to weigh whether the fit still makes sense. Since 2023, he has hit below .205, and his .184 average in 2026 only sharpened the questions around a player who once looked like a long-term piece in St. Louis.
The Cardinals also have internal options at third base, which gives them some flexibility if they decide the roster is better served by moving on. Gorman still has two years of team control left, and his arbitration salary is projected around $3.4 million, so tendering him a contract would not be a major financial burden. Even so, the more likely path may be to keep the door open while exploring trade possibilities this winter, leaving the club with a decision that is practical on paper but tougher in reality. [Read more 🡒]