The Sonny Gray deal might’ve just been the opening act in what’s shaping up to be a full-scale teardown in St. Louis. With the Winter Meetings looming, all signs point to the Cardinals entering sell mode-and two of their biggest names, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, are squarely in the spotlight.
Let’s start with Arenado. The writing’s been on the wall for a while now, and according to league insiders, it’s not a matter of if he’ll be traded this offseason-it’s when.
With two years left on his deal at a manageable cost and a noticeable dip in production on both offense and defense, the timing makes sense. He’s still a respected veteran, and there’s value in that, but the Cardinals appear ready to turn the page.
If Chaim Bloom is serious about reshaping this roster, moving Arenado could be the next big domino to fall.
Contreras, though, is a more complicated case.
He’s not just hanging on-he’s producing. In 2025, he slashed .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs, good for a 124 wRC+.
That’s three straight seasons north of 124 in that category, which puts him well above league average with the bat. And now that he’s transitioned from behind the plate to first base full-time, he’s not just surviving-he’s thriving.
In his debut season at the position, he posted six Outs Above Average, showing real defensive value at a spot that’s often overlooked in that department.
That kind of production, especially from a position switch, doesn’t just disappear. It’s why there’s talk that Contreras might not be part of the Cardinals’ winter fire sale after all.
Ken Rosenthal recently noted that while Arenado is almost certainly on his way out, Contreras is “a little bit different.” The veteran has reportedly expressed a desire to stay in St.
Louis, even as the team begins to dismantle its core.
But that could change quickly.
Rosenthal pointed out that if the Cardinals go all-in on this rebuild-moving not just Gray and Arenado, but also younger contributors like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman-Contreras might reassess his stance. You can’t blame him. He’s a World Series winner, still producing, and likely not eager to spend the next few years mentoring a clubhouse full of rookies and prospects.
From a front office perspective, the decision might come down to value. Contreras is owed $36.5 million over the next two years-not exactly a bargain, but far from unmovable, especially considering his bat.
The Cardinals already had to eat over $20 million to offload Sonny Gray, and they did it to bring in a promising arm in Brandon Clarke. If a similar deal presents itself for Contreras, one that helps restock the pitching pipeline or adds controllable talent, it’ll be tempting.
Still, there’s a case to be made for keeping him.
Once Arenado is gone, Contreras becomes the de facto veteran leader in a clubhouse that’s going to get very young, very fast. Outside of reliever Riley O’Brien, he’d be the only player over 30 on the roster. That kind of presence matters during a rebuild, especially when you’re trying to establish a new culture and bring along a wave of young talent.
So yes, Contreras has trade value. But he also has value to the Cardinals-both on the field and in the clubhouse.
If the right offer comes along, they’ll probably listen. But if he really wants to stay, and if the front office sees the benefit of keeping a productive, respected vet around, don’t be surprised if Contreras is still wearing red come Opening Day.
The fire sale may be underway, but not every veteran is guaranteed to be part of the clearance rack.