The Cardinals have already shown the kind of free-agent move that can pay off twice, and it’s hard not to look at Shane Bieber and see the same play staring them in the face.
Last offseason, St. Louis went after Dustin May, and the move worked in every direction.
May gave the club a real chance to win every time he took the mound, then later became part of the deal that sent him and JoJo Romero to the Milwaukee Brewers for two high-end prospects: No. 5 prospect Alexander Frias and No. 11 prospect Josiah Ragsdale. For the Cardinals, that was a clean win.
Now the idea is to do it again with Bieber.
St. Louis wasn’t all that far from being a playoff team in 2026.
The bullpen could have pushed them over the line, and the rotation could have used one more starter with Matthew Liberatore struggling. Bieber fits that opening.
He has a 3.31 career ERA in 154 big league appearances, and he’s already won a Cy Young Award. That’s a different level of proven than the upside May brought to the table.
The injury history is the obvious concern, but the source of the risk is also why the price could make sense. Bieber has been limited to 20 appearances over the last three seasons, though if the Blue Jays had reached the playoffs, he would have been ready to go.
He’s also 31, which puts him in the range where a one-year, prove-it deal with an option wouldn’t be a surprise. That kind of arrangement would line up with what St.
Louis has already done successfully.
There’s another reason the fit works: the Cardinals have shown they can keep starters healthy. For a pitcher like Bieber, that matters.
And when he’s right, he’s not just useful. He’s a legit No. 1 ace.
Put that kind of arm with St. Louis’ young starters, add a few bullpen pieces, and the picture changes fast.
If it doesn’t work out long term, the Cardinals could always deal him later the same way they did with May.
That’s why Bieber stands out as the obvious target when free agency opens.
In Other News...
Cardinals Suddenly Look Built To Pounce As Cubs Window Gets Shaky
The National League Central may look tilted toward Chicago right now, but the longer view is starting to favor St. Louis. The Cubs still have the better major league roster at the moment, yet the gap is built on a group that is getting older and a depth chart that does not have much help coming from the farm. For the Cardinals, the picture is different: a stronger system, a younger core and more roster control give them a cleaner path to staying competitive without having to buy every answer on the open market.
Chicago is going to need a meaningful spending spree just to keep up with the turnover ahead, and that kind of winter can get expensive fast when key pieces reach free agency. St. Louis, meanwhile, looks more like a club that can wait for the right moment to pounce, with the kind of starting pitching production projected for 2026 that could make the rest of the division nervous. The window is not wide open yet, but it is getting easier to see why the Cardinals believe they are moving into position to challenge for the division again soon. [Read more 🡒]
Nolan Arenado Gave Arizona Hope At Third Base Again For Now
For the Cardinals, Nolan Arenados move to Arizona in 2026 became one of those trades that always invites a second look once the season settles in. He still showed why the Diamondbacks were willing to take the chance, putting together a strong start and then finding his best swing again in September, even if the middle months were rough enough to keep the overall picture from feeling clean.
Arenado finished with a .255 average, 30 home runs and a 120 wRC+, a line that still carried real value at the plate. But the deeper indicators were less encouraging, with drops in exit velocity and hard-hit rate hinting that the power production may not be as sturdy as the final totals suggest, which leaves Arizona with hope at third base for now and a decision to sort through later. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Suddenly Have A Real Third Base Question To Watch
The Cardinals farm system did not end the season with championship banners in Memphis or Springfield, but there was still plenty for the organization to keep an eye on. Jesus Baez and Tai Peete both gave the club reasons to feel better about what comes next, with Peete turning in a strong run in Double-A and Baez continuing to look like a real bat to track as he moves through the system.
For St. Louis, the timing matters because third base remains one of the clearer long-term questions on the roster. Baez, who piled up 39 home runs and stayed hot in the playoffs with a 1.156 OPS, is starting to look like a legitimate candidate to eventually answer it. The Cardinals are not there yet, but performances like this are the kind that can change how an internal battle looks a year from now. [Read more 🡒]