For a few months, the National League Rookie of the Year race looked like it belonged to JJ Wetherholt without much debate. That picture has changed some as the season has worn on, with the St. Louis Cardinals rookie slipping into an offensive funk and Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart making a loud push of his own.
Wetherholt’s bat has cooled at the wrong time. After putting up a .856 OPS in March and April and a .747 OPS in June, he has not topped .675 in OPS since July began. His .600 OPS in August has taken a noticeable bite out of his season-long numbers.
Stewart, meanwhile, has surged. He posted an .816 OPS in July and followed that with an .804 mark in August, and 11 of his 27 home runs have come in those two months alone.
If you stack the season totals side by side, Stewart looks stronger in most of the standard offensive categories.
Player
Avg.
OBP
SLG
OPS+
HR
SB
RBIs
Runs Scored
JJ Wetherholt
.243
.348
.373
106
16
13
46
85
Sal Stewart
.259
.335
.474
121
27
12
96
70
By the usual offensive yardsticks, Stewart has the edge. He leads Wetherholt in five of the eight major categories listed above, and in a few of them the gap is not small.
But Rookie of the Year is not handed out on batting average alone, and that is where Wetherholt still has a firm grip on the conversation.
C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic dug into the matchup, and both club managers made clear where they stand.
Terry Francona backed his own guy with a nod to the complete offensive package, saying, "Obviously I am going to be very biased, as I should be,” Reds' manager Terry Francona said. "There’s something to be said for a guy that’s got (12) stolen bases, 26 home runs and 91 RBIs."
Oli Marmol answered for St. Louis by praising Wetherholt’s all-around game at second base: “He’s the best second baseman in the league,” quipped Cardinals' manager Oli Marmol in response.
“He makes the routine plays and the ones that aren’t routine. He’s always in the right spot.
He positions himself well, and he doesn’t take a pitch off. So that is being a competitor when you don’t give in any of those areas.”
That broader view is where Wetherholt separates himself. He holds a big advantage in bWAR, 4.8 to 2.1, and in fWAR, 4.4 to 2.1. His defense is doing a lot of the work in those numbers, but the underlying offensive profile also tells a more complicated story than the surface stats.
The park context matters, too. Stewart plays home games in Great American Ballpark, a venue Baseball Savant’s Park Factor rates as 4.1% more hitter-friendly than Busch Stadium.
The home-run projections drive that home: if Stewart had played all of his games at Busch Stadium, he would have finished with 16 homers. If every game had been at Great American Ballpark, that number jumps to 32.
Wetherholt’s numbers shift less dramatically. At Busch Stadium, he would have 14 home runs, just two fewer than Stewart. At Great American Ballpark, he would have 19.
Expected production paints another close picture. Wetherholt’s expected wOBA sits at .347, while Stewart’s is .348.
Thomas Nestico’s run-value work across 10 National League rookies adds another layer, and it favors Wetherholt as the most complete player in the group. He posted a +6 batting run value, a +22 fielding run value, and a +4 running run value. Only Cole Carigg, Carson Benge, and Pedro Ramirez were also positive in all three areas, and none came close to Wetherholt’s total production.
Stewart’s profile is narrower. His bat has been excellent, but he is positive only in batting, with no real defensive boost and essentially neutral value on the bases.
There is still a path for the race to tighten. If Wetherholt keeps scuffling and Stewart gets to 30 home runs while clearing 100 RBIs, the argument gets much harder to hold. If Wetherholt bounces back and Stewart cools even a little, the final six weeks or so could look very different.
For now, though, the split is pretty clear. On raw offensive production, Stewart has the stronger case. On the full body of work, Wetherholt still stands as the National League Rookie of the Year front-runner.
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