The St. Louis Cardinals have a chance to shore up their roster through free agency before a looming lockout complicates the offseason, but one name on the market comes with plenty of caution attached: Trevor Rogers.
St. Louis has spent this season hanging around the playoff picture longer than many expected, even while working through a rebuild.
That doesn’t erase the holes, though. Third base remains unsettled on offense, and the pitching staff still needs help in both the rotation and the bullpen.
Because the Cardinals are unlikely to part with top prospects in a trade, free agency looks like the more realistic route to adding arms.
Rogers has already been connected to St. Louis, but Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer urged teams to think twice before jumping in.
“A 2.64 ERA over 25 starts made Trevor Rogers an All-Star and Rookie of the Year contender in 2021,” Rymer wrote on Saturday. “In 2025, he made 18 starts and pitched to a 1.81 ERA.
This year, he had a 6.84 ERA at the end of May before ripping off a 2.90 ERA in his last 20 starts. There's a difference between a good run and a good season, however, and Rogers has yet to prove he can handle the latter.
That is, at least if you consider a good season from a starter to consist of 30-plus starts' worth of consistency.
"Even setting aside the inconsistency, though, there's still a broader lack of swing-and-miss stuff (46th percentile Whiff% this year) and one heck of a platoon disadvantage. Righties had a .759 OPS against Rogers this year, compared to a .515 OPS for lefties.
Normally, a good changeup can solve a problem like that. But the change is already Rogers' primary offering, and righties hit .338 with a .303 xBA against it this season.
Per its -11 Run Value, it was the worst changeup in baseball."
Rogers did settle in after that rough beginning. He finished the season 10-11 with a 4.03 ERA and 157 strikeouts over 30 starts.
That kind of production would help a rotation, but the price tag makes the fit tricky. Spotrac projects Rogers to land a multi-year deal worth around $26 million per year, which could push the total past $100 million.
For a Cardinals team still in the middle of a rebuild, that’s a steep investment for a pitcher when the club isn’t positioned to chase a championship right now. There’s also the draft-pick cost to consider, since the Baltimore Orioles extended Rogers a qualifying offer. Any team that signs him would have to surrender a valuable pick.
St. Louis needs another starter, but Rogers looks like a costly gamble.
In Other News...
Astros Could Hand Cardinals A Dangerous Lineup Upgrade This Winter
The Cardinals are heading into the winter with a young core and plenty of room to upgrade after finishing 77-85, and MLB.coms Will Leitch has already floated a name that would fit the timeline. Houston infielder Isaac Paredes is down to one year of team control, and his 2026 production was solid enough to make him an appealing target for a club looking to add more impact around players like JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker.
Paredes would give St. Louis a different kind of presence in the lineup, the sort of move that could help deepen the offense for 2027 if the Cardinals decide to be aggressive. The catch is that a deal does not sound especially likely, which leaves the idea in that familiar offseason space where it makes plenty of baseball sense but still has a long way to go before becoming real. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals May Already Be Seeing The Lars Nootbaar Trade Pay Off
The Cardinals moved Lars Nootbaar to Arizona and brought back three pitching prospects, a deal that was always going to be judged by what came next rather than what it cost in the moment. Among the return, Daniel Eagan has already given St. Louis a reason to feel better about the exchange, with the 24-year-old right-hander showing noticeable improvement after the trade and finishing the second half with a 4.15 ERA while piling up strikeouts at a rate that stood out across the minors.
Eagans progress has carried into the offseason, too, as he took part in the Cardinals development program in Florida with an eye on adding velocity and sharpening his splitter. For a club that has spent plenty of time looking for more impact arms, that kind of early traction matters, especially when a trade built around a major-league outfielder starts producing encouraging signs from the pitching side before the dust has even settled. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Could Revisit A Familiar Rotation Gamble This Offseason
Casey Mize has spent much of his career trying to turn promise into consistency, and this winter could put him back on the open market as a former No. 1 overall pick with plenty of intrigue attached. For a Cardinals club that has been searching for ways to reshape its rotation without overcommitting long term, he fits the kind of low-risk, high-upside profile that often shows up in offseason conversations.
The appeal is obvious: Mize is still young enough to be viewed as a rebound candidate, and his background gives him a ceiling that teams are willing to bet on even after injuries and uneven results. A one-year deal has been floated as a reasonable path, which would let St. Louis take a swing without tying itself down, though the real question is whether the Cardinals decide this is the kind of gamble worth making when the market opens. [Read more 🡒]