The St. Louis Cardinals may have found a template worth repeating after last offseason’s Dustin May move, and Casey Mize fits the mold.
May’s one-year deal with an option gave both sides something useful. The Cardinals got a young starter who could soak up innings, while May landed in a lower-pressure spot as he tried to reestablish himself.
That arrangement paid off, and St. Louis could take a similar swing this winter with Mize.
Mize brings a different kind of profile, but the appeal is easy to see. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft by the Detroit Tigers and entered pro ball with huge expectations.
Injuries have kept him from fully cashing in on that promise. In his first six professional seasons, he has topped 130 innings only three times and has reached 30 starts in a season just once.
The results have been uneven, too. Mize owns a career 4.22 ERA, 4.31 FIP and a strikeout rate just under 20%.
He has leaned on low walk totals and his breaking balls to stay afloat. He does not bring the kind of overpowering stuff Dustin May does, but there is still enough there to make him worth a look.
The split in his 2026 season tells the story. In the first half, Mize posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.69 FIP while holding opponents to a .209 average over 77.1 innings.
He also struck out 25.3% of hitters and walked only 5.9%. Then the second half went sideways.
That leaves the obvious question for any team considering him: which version shows up next?
For the Cardinals, that uncertainty may actually be part of the attraction. Mize still has untapped upside, and he would arrive with something to prove.
That combination makes him a plausible fit for St. Louis’ 2027 rotation.
The contract projections are all over the map. Spotrac has Mize at three years and $50 million, a price and term that feel rich given his production and injury history.
ESPN is much lighter, projecting a one-year, $15 million deal. That shorter route makes more sense if a team believes Mize can put together a stronger season and set himself up for a bigger payday next winter, when there should also be more financial certainty.
Steamer sees a more modest outcome, projecting a 4.45 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 1.7 fWAR for 2027, along with a 19.2% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate. That forecast seems to lean heavily on the rough second half rather than the strong first half.
Mize will turn 30 on May 1, which makes him one of the younger free-agent starters available this offseason. Adrian Morejon, Dustin May, Kris Bubic and Hiromi Itoh are among the younger names in that group. For the Cardinals, Mize’s age, pedigree and motivation make him a particularly interesting name to watch.
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