The Cardinals are staring at a kind of finish they haven’t seen in decades, and the path out is getting narrower by the day.
St. Louis dropped to 76-81 after Tuesday night’s loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, which means the club can no longer finish above .500.
With five games left, the only way to reach even that mark is to win out, and the schedule is not doing them any favors. Paul Skenes is waiting Thursday, and the Milwaukee Brewers are next, still locked in a fight for the top seed in the National League.
One more loss would lock in something even uglier: a losing season and back-to-back losing years for the first time since 1958 and 1959. Last year’s club finished 78-84, and the Cardinals are now on the brink of matching a stretch that hasn’t shown up in the franchise record book in a very long time.
The team was officially knocked out of postseason contention last week, guaranteeing a fourth straight October away from the field. But there was still at least one thing left to play for: avoiding another losing record. That possibility is still alive, but just barely, and the margin for error has basically vanished.
Tuesday night did nothing to help. The offense managed only one hit and was shut out, a flat showing at exactly the wrong time.
Now the rotation has to try to carry the load, starting with Matthew Liberatore on Wednesday. He was solid in his last outing against the San Francisco Giants, but the numbers behind his season tell a tougher story: 5-14 with a 5.36 ERA in 30 starts, and he has not pitched well on the road.
Thursday brings Skenes, and while the Cardinals have had plenty of success against the former Cy Young winner in the past, that history won’t make the assignment any easier with Skenes on his home mound. Kyle Leahy is set to start the series finale, with Cooper Hjerpe likely covering most of the innings after he exits.
Then it’s on to Milwaukee, where Michael McGreevy gets the opener and Quinn Mathews follows the next day. Sunday’s starter has not been announced, though Pallante would make sense if St. Louis still has a shot at finishing at .500.
For an organization built on winning and loaded with championship history, this is not the kind of season the Cardinals are used to living through. Even so, if they do end up under .500, 2026 still has a case to be made for itself because of the growth from the young players.
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Cardinals May Be Reworking Alec Burlesons Role For One Big Reason
The Cardinals have quietly begun adjusting Alec Burlesons usage at first base, and the reason is hard to miss. Leo Bernal has started there in two games, with St. Louis choosing to sit Burleson against left-handed pitchers after his struggles in that split, a move that reflects the teams broader search for more reliable lineup balance.
What makes the plan worth watching is that Bernal is only part of it. The Cardinals are also considering other options such as Ivan Herrera and Rainiel Rodriguez at first base, a sign they want to squeeze more productive at-bats out of younger players while putting Burleson in better spots to do damage against right-handers. For a team trying to sharpen its offense, especially in tougher pitching matchups, the position may become less about one fixed starter and more about matching the right bat to the right night. [Read more 🡒]
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Arenado, meanwhile, has been productive in Arizona, which only sharpens the conversation around what the Cardinals gave up and why they were willing to do it. For St. Louis, though, the move was never just about one player's numbers. It was about choosing a long-term path, even if the short-term optics make the debate around Arenado feel a lot more complicated than the front office would probably like. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Rebuild Could Stall Fast Without One Crucial Offseason Fix
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But the offenses progress can only carry so much weight if the pitching picture stays this shaky. St. Louis needs a true front-end starter and help for a bullpen that has dealt with blown saves and an inflated ERA, and the pressure on the front office is obvious because another offseason without those fixes could leave the clubs encouraging first half feeling much less meaningful. [Read more 🡒]