The Cardinals’ decision to move Nolan Arenado before the 2026 season looks a lot cleaner when you zoom out from the box score.
Arenado has been excellent in Arizona, no question. Through 147 games, he’s hitting .250/.325/.464 with a .789 OPS, 28 homers, 79 RBIs, 24 doubles and 75 runs scored.
His 3.0 wins above replacement are his best mark since he put up 7.9 in 2022. On the surface, that kind of production makes any trade look risky.
In reality, St. Louis still made the right call.
The Cardinals sent Arenado to the Diamondbacks and received right-hander Jack Martinez in return, while also covering $31 million of the final $42 million owed to the eight-time All-Star. That move trimmed payroll, and Martinez has shown some promise in the Cardinals’ system.
More importantly, it fit the direction St. Louis chose to take before the season: get younger and prioritize development.
That context matters because Arenado’s numbers in Arizona are tied to a very different environment. Chase Field is one of the most home run-friendly parks in baseball, tied for second in park factor with Fenway Park and Target Field.
Busch Stadium sits all the way down at 25th. Arenado hit 26 home runs in 2023 and, combined, 28 over his last two seasons in St.
Louis. His big year in Arizona has been real, but there’s no guarantee it would have looked the same if he had stayed put.
And if he had stayed, the Cardinals would have lost a chance to learn more about what they have elsewhere on the infield. Blaze Jordan got a look at the hot corner.
Nolan Gorman likely would have been stuck in a more uneven role early in the season, which would have left the door open for more debate about whether inconsistent playing time was behind his offensive issues. Instead, St.
Louis got enough of a sample to believe he shouldn’t be counted on as a main piece going forward.
Thomas Saggese has also seen time at third base lately, along with other infield spots, and that development matters too. He could realistically play a big role next year.
So yes, Arenado’s season in Arizona is easy to admire. But that doesn’t make the Cardinals’ decision a mistake.
In a year built around development, they’ve gotten the look they wanted. In the long run, moving Arenado was the right move.
In Other News...
Cardinals May Be Reworking Alec Burlesons Role For One Big Reason
The Cardinals have quietly begun adjusting Alec Burlesons usage at first base, and the reason is hard to miss. Leo Bernal has started there in two games, with St. Louis choosing to sit Burleson against left-handed pitchers after his struggles in that split, a move that reflects the teams broader search for more reliable lineup balance.
What makes the plan worth watching is that Bernal is only part of it. The Cardinals are also considering other options such as Ivan Herrera and Rainiel Rodriguez at first base, a sign they want to squeeze more productive at-bats out of younger players while putting Burleson in better spots to do damage against right-handers. For a team trying to sharpen its offense, especially in tougher pitching matchups, the position may become less about one fixed starter and more about matching the right bat to the right night. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Are Suddenly One Loss From A Brutal New Low
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With five games still to play, the only thing left for the Cardinals to chase is damage control. They need to win out just to avoid a losing season, and if they cannot, it would leave them with back-to-back losing years for the first time since 1958 and 1959, another stark marker in a stretch that now includes a fourth straight missed playoff berth. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Rebuild Could Stall Fast Without One Crucial Offseason Fix
The Cardinals have spent much of this season looking more competitive than their record might suggest, which is part of what makes the next step so important. Even with a losing season likely to follow last years, St. Louis has had enough bright spots to keep the rebuild from feeling stalled, thanks in part to breakout turns from Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson and a 50-45 mark heading into the All-Star break.
But the offenses progress can only carry so much weight if the pitching picture stays this shaky. St. Louis needs a true front-end starter and help for a bullpen that has dealt with blown saves and an inflated ERA, and the pressure on the front office is obvious because another offseason without those fixes could leave the clubs encouraging first half feeling much less meaningful. [Read more 🡒]