Hancel Rincon’s move to the bullpen has changed the conversation around his future. The right-hander, who has just been promoted to the St.
Louis Cardinals roster, looks like a pitcher whose stuff fits better in relief than it ever did in the rotation. Once a starter, Rincon has taken a clear step forward since shifting roles, with his strikeout ability ticking up and his arsenal playing more aggressively in shorter bursts.
That’s the appeal here: the raw ingredients are good enough to matter. Rincon works with a mid-90s fastball, a changeup that stands out as his best pitch, and a slider that gives him another weapon against right-handed hitters.
The fastball sits around 94-96 mph and can climb higher in short bursts, while the changeup brings late dive and enough separation to miss bats, especially against lefties. The slider is sharp enough to serve as a second swing-and-miss pitch.
The issue is not the stuff. It’s whether he can land it with enough consistency.
That concern shows up in the command grade, which sits at 45. Walks remain the biggest question, and the profile gets a lot more interesting if that area improves even a little.
When Rincon is around the zone, he looks like the kind of arm that can handle leverage innings. When he isn’t, the volatility creeps in fast.
The numbers from Triple-A Memphis in 2026 back up the idea that the transition to relief has helped. Rincon threw 71.1 innings and posted a 4.04 ERA, but the more telling number is the strikeout total: 88 punchouts, which works out to roughly a 30% strikeout rate.
He averaged 95 mph with the fastball and worked in a multi-inning relief role after moving off starting duties. That strikeout production is the separator, and it improved once he stopped trying to pace himself like a starter.
There are still some clear drawbacks. Rincon has a lean frame that brings durability questions, and he isn’t an elite velocity arm in the mold of the premium late-inning relievers.
He can also give up the long ball at times when he falls behind in counts. But the broader shape of the profile is easy to see: a pitcher whose best traits are better suited to a bullpen job.
Before the season, Rincon was ranked as the No. 28 prospect in the Cardinals system, one spot ahead of Luis Gastelum. He carries a 45 FV grade and doesn’t fit the traditional top-100 mold, but he has become one of the more intriguing pitching stories in the organization.
The upside is real enough to map out. The best-case comparison is Luis Garcia, in either his Angels or Astros version: mid-90s velocity, quality secondary stuff, and success built more on pitch mix and deception than pure overpowering heat.
A more realistic path looks like JoJo Romero, with multiple effective pitches, the ability to work leverage innings, and enough strikeout ability to matter despite some command lapses. If the changeup carries the way it can, the ceiling starts to resemble Hector Neris.
The floor is more volatile, closer to Génesis Cabrera, with electric flashes but inconsistent strike throwing.
For the Cardinals, the role projection is straightforward. Rincon looks like a future sixth- or seventh-inning reliever with a chance to grow into a setup man.
The bullpen move seems to have unlocked what he does best, and that gives him a legitimate path to becoming a useful piece in St. Louis over the next few seasons.
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