The NHL is heading toward a Sept. 29 opener, and if last season taught us anything, it’s that some numbers were so strange they’d be hard to run back even if a team tried.
Start with Chicago, where the Blackhawks managed to finish 32nd in the NHL in Natural Stat Trick’s expected goal model for five straight years. That’s not a one-off bad stretch; it’s a five-year run of ending up last in expected goals generated per 60 minutes at five-on-five. And it happened under five different coaches: Jeremy Colliton, interim Derek King, Luke Richardson, interim Anders Sorensen and Jeff Blashill.
Philadelphia has its own ugly habit. The Flyers have finished last in power play conversion rate in four of the past five seasons.
In the one season they didn’t come in dead last, they were still 30th. That drought has crossed multiple coaching staffs too, with Alain Vigneault, Mike Yeo (interim), John Tortorella, Brad Shaw (interim) and Rick Tocchet all behind the bench during that span.
Then there were the teams that spent plenty of time in the offensive zone but didn’t do much with it. The New York Rangers finished ninth in offensive zone time last season, according to NHL Edge, but they ranked 31st in all situations shots and 28th in high danger shots.
Natural Stat Trick had them 30th in shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Nashville had a similar problem.
The Predators were sixth in offensive zone time, but they were only one spot better than New York in goals-for per 60 minutes, finishing 23rd to the Rangers’ 24th. The difference was that Nashville created chances at a higher rate.
One of the season’s biggest oddities came from line production. The best line in the NHL, using a minimum of 250 minutes, belonged to a team that missed the playoffs.
St. Louis’ late-season top line of Dylan Holloway, Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud won 80 percent of the goal share in 253 minutes.
That group outscored opponents 24-6, led the NHL in goals for per 60 minutes according to MoneyPuck, and ranked third among 52 lines in goals against per 60 minutes.
On the other end, the worst line in that same sample came from Dallas, a team that finished with the third most points in the league at 112. Jason Robertson and Mavrik Bourque skated with Wyatt Johnston, and the results were rough: opponents outscored them 12-7, their goals-for rate was 36.8 percent, and they finished 50th of 52 lines in goals for per 60 minutes.
And then there was the goaltending. The NHL’s median save percentage in all situations dropped to 88.96 percent last season, marking the second straight year it declined.
The league’s best goalies didn’t always get rewarded for it, either. Three of the six top goalies in MoneyPuck’s Goals Saved Above Expected played at least 51 games: Logan Thompson of Washington, Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders and Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers.
None of those three made the playoffs. The two best goalies in that stat who did reach the postseason, Jeremy Swayman of Boston and Andrei Vasilevskiy of Tampa, saw their teams lose in the opening round.
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Holloways fit is easy to understand because of the way he has already flashed alongside Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud on one of the leagues better first lines. McMichaels situation is a little trickier, since he is being asked to adjust to a completely new environment while living up to a sizable commitment. For the Blues, the real question is not whether either player can help, but which deal is more likely to look uneasy as the years go by. [Read more 🡒]