The St. Louis Blues are heading into another season with a familiar label hanging over them: not bad enough to be out of it early, not strong enough to feel safe. The Athletic’s preseason projection has them landing around 88 points with a 41% shot at the playoffs, which leaves plenty of room for hope - and plenty of room for the same old problems to drag them back into the pack.
That projection lines up with the larger concern around this team: the Blues can look dangerous when everything clicks, but they still seem built to live in the league’s middle class. They’ve already shown that movie before.
Two seasons ago, they started slowly, caught fire late, and nearly knocked off the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets. Last season, they made another late push but still came up a few points short of the postseason.
The strongest argument for a better result this time starts at the top of the lineup. Robert Thomas remains the clear first-line center, and newcomer Mason McTavish is expected to have the inside track to play behind him.
McTavish brings real offensive talent, but his defensive game has been a mess, mostly because of skating issues. That was enough for Ducks coach Joel Quenneville to move him to the wing at times last season and even healthy scratch him in the playoffs.
There’s also a case for Dylan Holloway to take another step. He only played 59 games last season, but he was electric over the final 25, piling up 34 points while skating on a line with Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud.
If Holloway stays healthy and Snuggerud keeps climbing, that could give St. Louis a top line that can do real damage.
The problem is what comes after that. The Blues have some decent options on the fourth line and, to a lesser degree, the third line.
The trouble starts in the middle six, where the entire forward group begins to look shaky. Connor McMichael and McTavish are both expected to play major roles, and Pavel Buchnevich would have to find another gear to make that second line work.
That’s a lot to ask. McMichael had a rough year with the Washington Capitals before the trade, McTavish has already shown his flaws, and Buchnevich’s age makes it hard to believe he’ll ever fully match the contract he’s on.
The bigger concern, though, is on the back end. The Athletic’s models view the defense as the team’s biggest weakness, and Philip Broberg is the only Blues defenseman with a positive offensive rating.
He’s a strong piece, but St. Louis badly needs more puck movement and more scoring from the blue line.
A rebound from Cam Fowler would help a lot, but age-related decline makes that a much tougher bet.
Goaltending is another major swing factor. Joel Hofer needs to be the guy to open the season, because Jordan Binnington was one of the worst goalies in the league last year. If Hofer stumbles, Jim Montgomery may have no choice but to turn back to Binnington, and if last season is any indication, that could go sideways fast.
So the Blues have some real ingredients: a strong top line, a good starter in net, and a defenseman who can be trusted as a fringe No. 1.
But the roster still feels thin where it matters most, and the ceiling depends heavily on whether a few players can bounce back at once. Add in a Central Division that looks top-heavy and a team that spent long stretches last season looking flat, and the forecast stays pretty clear: the Blues are probably stuck in the mushy middle again.
In Other News...
Blues Prospects Are Forcing Attention Earlier Than Expected
September has barely settled in, but a few Blues prospects are already giving the organization something to track from afar. The update from Sept. 20 spans the KHL, VHL and junior ranks, with Dmitri Buchelnikov, Matvei Korotky, Lars Steiner, Ondrej Kos and Mikhail Fyodorov all showing signs of progress in their own lanes while the Ontario Hockey League season is beginning to stir for players such as Colin Fitzgerald and Nick Bogas.
Buchelnikovs early scoring with CSKA Moskva is the most eye-catching part of the overseas snapshot, and Korotkys stop-and-start path between the KHL and VHL is another reminder that development does not always move in a straight line. Add in the early contributions from the junior side, and the Blues are seeing more of their young depth than expected this soon, even if the bigger question is which of these starts can turn into something lasting as the season unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Blues Put Real Pressure On One Preseason Test In Dallas
The Blues head into their preseason game in Dallas with a lineup that looks a little more like October than September, as several NHL regulars are set for their first appearance of the season. It is the kind of test that matters more than the final score, especially for a team trying to get its top players, and its structure, moving in the right direction before the games start counting.
Adam Jiricek is among the names worth watching as he continues to push for a role on the blue line, while Robert Thomas anchors the first line and gives the club a familiar center to build around. Joel Hofer is also expected to get the start in goal, another reminder that the Blues are using this trip to Dallas to sort out the pieces they plan to lean on when the regular season arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Theo Lindstein Just Turned Up The Heat On A Blues Roster Battle
The Blues are only one preseason game into their evaluation of the blue line, but Theo Lindstein has already made the competition feel a little more urgent. St. Louis is sorting through a defensive group with spots still available, and Lindsteins strong first impression has put him squarely in the mix as the club begins narrowing down its options.
Adam Jiricek remains part of the picture, and the next preseason game should offer a clearer look at how the battle is shaping up. With final roster decisions still ahead, the Blues have time to weigh each performance, but Lindstein has at least given the staff something to think about early in the process. [Read more 🡒]