The Blues’ prospect pool is already showing some clear movement this season, and by Nov. 12 there are a few names making noise for all the right reasons - and a few sliding the other way.
At the top of the risers list, Tynan Lawrence is making the loudest statement. The 18-year-old Boston University center has piled up nine goals and 14 points in 11 NCAA games, a huge jump from his 0.39 points-per-game pace in 18 games with the Terriers last season.
He’s logging around 18:45 a night, firing 3.5 shots per game and carrying a 55% Corsi-For. The nine goals have come on 42 shots, which works out to a 21% clip, so some regression could be coming.
Even so, the shot volume and possession numbers point to real growth, not just a hot streak.
Colin Fitzgerald has also taken a step forward. The Soo Greyhounds winger has nine goals and 19 points in 21 OHL games after posting a 0.49 scoring pace across his previous two seasons in the league. He’s putting more pucks on net, averaging nearly 3.6 shots per game, and he’s getting close to four minutes a night on the power play.
Dmitri Buchelnikov, one of the newest additions to the Blues’ prospect pipeline, is another name trending up. The Russian forward, acquired in the Justin Faulk trade to the Detroit Red Wings, has nine goals and 12 points in 25 KHL games for CSKA Moskva. His goal rate has climbed to 0.36 per game from 0.28 a year ago, and he’s holding steady with a 55% Corsi-For rating.
Not every prospect is making a leap, though. Some are simply holding their ground.
Otto Stenberg has been steady while splitting time between St. Louis and Springfield over the past two seasons.
The 21-year-old has six points in 14 NHL games, which works out to roughly 0.43 per game after sitting around 0.37 over the previous two seasons. He’s averaging 16:32 of ice time and 1:47 per game on the penalty kill.
The 45% Corsi rating leaves room for improvement, but he still looks like a dependable two-way forward.
Love Härenstam remains in the steady lane as well. The goaltender, widely viewed as the top netminding prospect in the system, has posted a .919 save percentage and a 2.11 goals-against average in 16 appearances for Södertälje SK. He’s been consistent, even if he hasn’t been spectacular.
Colin Ralph has earned a bigger role in Springfield by handling the pro game well. The 21-year-old defenseman has one point in 13 AHL games, and his 43% Corsi-For is nearly unchanged from last season’s 44% mark in 14 AHL games.
What has changed is his workload. He’s playing almost four more minutes per night on the penalty kill and about 18:24 overall.
The drop-off group has a few more concerns attached to it.
Juraj Pekarcik hasn’t settled in with Springfield, and his usage has reflected that. The 21-year-old has four points in 13 games this season, down from a 0.44 points-per-game pace last year.
His shot rate has also dipped from 0.69 per game to 0.38. His possession numbers have stayed around 46% year over year, but the lack of offense is hard to ignore.
Simon Robertsson’s situation is a little different. His spot here is tied more to reduced opportunity than raw production.
The 23-year-old has three points in six AHL games and is getting closer to aging out of prospect status. Health has been a major issue, but his underlying numbers are strong: a 59% Corsi-For rating, up from 37% a year ago.
Zach Dean is the biggest name in the slide category, and the pressure is building. The Springfield center opened the season with the Blues, went scoreless in three games while posting a 27% Corsi-For rating, and was sent down.
In five AHL games since, he has two points and a 41% Corsi-For. It’s still a tiny sample, but Dean needs to find his two-way game if he wants another NHL look down the line.
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