The St. Louis Blues may be done making moves, and the early read on their offseason is not especially flattering.
With Connor McMichael’s six-year extension at a $6.75 million annual average value now in the books, the Blues appear to have wrapped up their summer business. The draft is behind them, the list of notable in-house free agents is empty, and the market has been picked over. Unless a surprise trade comes together, this is probably the group heading to training camp.
That leaves the real question: did St. Louis actually get better?
One statistical model at The Athletic says no. In fact, it has the Blues taking a step backward, assigning them a Net Rating of minus-7.
Dom Luszczyszyn put it bluntly: "St. Louis’ pro scouting staff deserves some benefit of the doubt after the double offer sheet coup.
But I would still prefer Jordan Kyrou over Mason McTavish and Connor McMichael. Kyrou is a legit needle-mover; the other two currently look a lot closer to average.
“Currently” is the key word there. It wouldn’t be a shock to see both improve within a new context.
For now, though, the Blues do look worse off."
That’s the heart of the concern. Jordan Kyrou had a disappointing 2025-26 season, and a change of scenery made sense, but his body of work still matters.
He’s been a steady 30-goal scorer for much of his career, and the underlying numbers have often liked his game. Natural Stat Trick had his 59.74 xGF% last season as the best mark on the Blues.
Mason McTavish, meanwhile, also comes off a down year. He’s younger, so a rebound is very much on the table, but he doesn’t yet have Kyrou’s track record or the same statistical resume.
Connor McMichael brings another layer of uncertainty. He broke out at 24 and shot 14.7 percent last season, which creates some real risk that both McTavish and McMichael represent a meaningful downgrade from the player they’re replacing.
Still, the model’s gloomy view doesn’t tell the whole story.
There are reasons to think the Blues could be better than the numbers suggest. Their goaltending should not be the league’s worst for half a season again, and healthier years from Robert Thomas, Dylan Holloway, and others should help. Internal growth and natural player development don’t always show up cleanly in these projections, which is why the surface-level verdict can look harsher than the bigger picture.
So while the paper version of the roster looks weaker, the actual season may play out a little differently. The Blues may not have improved much this summer, but there’s still a path to looking better once the games start.
In Other News...
Three Bold Blues Predictions Will Split Fans On This Core
The Blues are being asked to live in the gray area again, with one set of predictions for 2026-27 suggesting a team that is better but still not quite good enough to get back into the postseason. That kind of projection is bound to split the fan base, because it acknowledges progress around the roster while still leaving St. Louis on the outside looking in, even if the margin is tighter than it has been.
Robert Thomas sits at the center of the optimism, coming off the kind of production that keeps him in the conversation as the clubs offensive driver. The bigger question is whether the next leap comes from the skaters in front of him or from the crease, where the Blues appear to be weighing a future that could reshape the depth chart and the identity of the team all at once. [Read more 🡒]