Dylan Holloway’s breakout season in St. Louis came at a bargain price. Now the Blues are paying a lot more, and the real question is whether he can keep producing like a top-line star when the bill gets bigger.
Last season, Holloway, Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud emerged as the Blues’ ideal first line, and the hope is that trio stays intact into next season. Holloway’s new contract makes that more than just wishful thinking. The deal begins when the puck drops on October 2 against Dallas and runs for five years with an average annual value of $7.75 million.
That’s a steep jump from the $2.29 million contract Holloway played on last season, and he earned every bit of it. In 59 games, he scored 22 goals and added 29 assists for 51 points. On a points-per-$1 million basis, “Hollywood” was definitely efficient.
But that kind of value math can only stretch so far. If Holloway somehow matched last season’s pace on his new deal, the numbers would point to 173 points next season. That’s obviously not happening.
A more realistic target is still plenty ambitious. With his role on the top line and the talent around him, Holloway should have a chance to push past 30 goals and land in the high 30s in assists, which would put him near 70 points.
There are a couple of reasons that projection makes sense. For one, Holloway is set to skate with Thomas and Snuggerud, and both linemates are expected to have career years. That should give No. 81 plenty of ice time and plenty of chances to make plays.
The other factor is health. Holloway has not yet played a full season because of a couple of injuries during his short time with the Blues. Had he stayed healthy last season, he would have been a 70-point player, undoubtedly.
St. Louis is counting on him in more ways than one. Holloway is part of the team’s new leadership group under captain Thomas, and general manager Alexander Steen is clearly betting big on him as the Blues try to get back into the competitive mix.
Nobody is expecting 173 points. But if Holloway stays healthy, keeps that first line rolling and continues to produce, a 70-point season is a fair target - and maybe just the start.
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