For Justin Carbonneau, the smartest next step may not be the fastest one.
The Blues’ 2025 first-round pick just put together a junior season that screamed upside, with 51 goals and 80 points in 60 regular-season games, then seven goals and 20 points in 17 postseason games. The offense is real.
Nobody’s questioning that. The question is where he should polish the rest of his game, and the answer points straight to Springfield.
If Carbonneau shows well in camp, St. Louis still shouldn’t be tempted to skip the process and hand him an opening-night job.
A full first pro season with the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds would give him the kind of heavy minutes that can shape a young player far better than sheltered NHL usage. It’s the right environment for a prospect with his tools to learn without being thrown immediately into the deep end.
The most obvious adjustment comes away from the puck and away from the highlight reel. Carbonneau spent the 2025-26 season in 1,069 puck battles and won 483 of them, a 45% rate.
In the AHL, those confrontations get nastier in a hurry. Defenders close space faster, board play gets more physical, and every loose puck feels like a small war.
That’s exactly the sort of grind he needs to live in for a season before facing NHL-sized bodies.
His edge also comes with some rough spots. Carbonneau picked up 64 penalty minutes in the regular season and another 20 in the playoffs.
Coaches will love the motor, but that kind of penalty total can hurt a team’s rhythm at the pro level. Springfield’s staff can help him keep that fire while cutting down on the infractions.
There’s still work to do on the shot selection, too. Carbonneau is a volume shooter, having taken 729 total shot attempts and put 401 on goal between the regular season and postseason.
More than 40% of those attempts were blocked or missed. In the NHL, lanes disappear fast.
In Springfield, he can sharpen his release, make quicker decisions, and learn how to get pucks through traffic more efficiently.
His passing game also deserves that kind of runway. Carbonneau had 29 assists in the regular season and completed 82 percent of his passes last season, after posting 43 assists one year earlier.
The production is there, but junior hockey passing windows do not always survive the jump to pro coverage. Working through tighter spaces and learning to make high-danger plays before defenders pin him to the wall could go a long way toward determining whether he eventually fits as a top-six NHL forward.
That’s why a year in the AHL makes so much sense. Springfield would let him play big minutes, run the power play, and even get chances on the penalty kill, all while building the 200-foot consistency pro coaches demand.
For Carbonneau, the goal shouldn’t be to arrive as a rushed rookie with upside. It should be to show up later as a more complete player ready to matter for the Blues.
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Jordan Binningtons age and contract timeline make this more than a simple depth-chart debate, and the Blues could find themselves facing a choice between protecting short-term stability and preserving long-term value. If an expansion draft ever does land on that schedule, the front office may have to decide whether to move on from Binnington earlier rather than risk a scenario where he is left exposed and the Blues get nothing back. [Read more 🡒]
Blues May Have A Center Debate That Changes Their Future
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St. Louis wants a lineup that can flex through the middle with Thomas, McTavish and Dvorsky, rather than forcing one of its young pieces out of position just to make the puzzle fit. That approach would also let the Blues keep prospect Tynan Lawrence on a slower developmental track, while the bigger question remains whether Dvorsky is best served by staying where he is or taking on a new role for the sake of balance elsewhere on the roster. [Read more 🡒]
Blues Entering A New Era With One Huge Leadership Decision Ahead
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Several names are in the mix, including Robert Thomas, Jake Neighbours, Philip Broberg, Jimmy Snuggerud and Colton Parayko, with a few others still lingering as long shots. The bigger question now is not just who gets the job, but when the Blues decide to make it official, since there is a growing sense around the team that a pre-season announcement would make sense if the choice is clear enough. [Read more 🡒]