St. Louis Blues fans hoping Justin Carbonneau would blaze straight from the draft floor to the NHL may need to slow down a bit.
The 19-year-old right wing, taken in the 2025 first round, has shown flashes with the Springfield Thunderbirds, but his early AHL stretch suggests the climb is going to take longer than some expected. He has five goals in 15 minutes with Springfield, yet the underlying numbers point to a player still working through the adjustment.
That’s not unusual for a rookie winger, especially one moving from junior hockey to older, stronger competition. Carbonneau put up huge numbers last season with Blainville-Boisbriand, scoring 51 goals and 80 points in 60 regular season games while averaging 1.33 points per game. In Springfield, that pace has dropped to 0.53.
The shot volume tells a similar story. Carbonneau went from 5.2 shots per night last season to 3.2 in the AHL, and his total attempts have fallen from about 9.4 per game to roughly 5.5. He’s still producing at a respectable rate for a first-year pro, but the transition has clearly been real.
His ice time has also trended down. According to InStat Hockey, Carbonneau averaged 19:58 in his first five games, including a 25-minute outing on Sept. 25, but that number has slipped to 16:31 over his last five. He has gone eight games without a goal and has only two points in his last five.
The bigger picture in St. Louis makes the wait even more likely.
The Blues already have 14 forwards on the roster with a combined cap hit of $55.6 million, and the top of the depth chart is crowded. Robert Thomas ($8.125m), Pavel Buchnevich ($8m), Dylan Holloway ($7.75m), Mason McTavish ($7m), and Connor McMichael ($6.75m) are all signed through 2031.
On the right side, Jimmy Snuggerud, 22, has locked down a top-line role, while Buchnevich is trying to find his game again on the third line and working in a penalty-killing role. Those are the kinds of minutes Carbonneau would have to climb over to get a real look.
There will be openings eventually. Pius Suter ($4.125m) is headed for unrestricted free agency after this season, and Snuggerud, Jake Neighbours, and Jonatan Berggren are all set to become restricted free agents. The 2027-28 group is not going to look exactly like the 2026-27 roster fans are seeing now.
Carbonneau also isn’t the only young forward in the mix. Aleksentari Kaskimäki has already shown he can handle a bottom-six role, Otto Stenberg has already picked up NHL games and has 11 points in 35 games to this point, and Dmitri Buchelnikov could enter the picture if he leaves the KHL for the United States. Buchelnikov, 23, is playing a middle-six role for CSKA Moskva and has nine goals and 12 points in 25 games.
For now, the Blues have no real reason to force the issue with Carbonneau. The next 20 games in Springfield should give the team and its fans a better sense of whether he’s close to next season’s roster or if he’s headed for a longer stay in the AHL.
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