The St. Louis Blues don’t have much contract drama hanging over them right now, but that doesn’t mean the books are spotless. According to The Athletic’s contract efficiency ranking, the Blues have a few deals that look excellent and a few that could become real headaches.
At the top of the concern list is Pavel Buchnevich’s extension, the $8-million AAV deal he signed in July 2024 that runs through 2031. The Athletic gave it a D+, and the criticism is pretty straightforward: Buchnevich is not the same forward he used to be, and this could wind up as a cap casualty down the line. Doug Armstrong’s habit of extending players a full year before their deals expire is part of the backdrop here.
Cam Fowler’s contract is another one that doesn’t inspire much confidence. His $6.1-million AAV deal earns a C-, and at 34, there’s real doubt that he’ll get back to the level he showed in his first months in St.
Louis. The model also flags some risk in Connor McMichael’s extension, wonders whether Mason McTavish can turn his career around, and includes a puzzling Ross Johnston deal in the mix.
That collection of contracts is a big reason the Blues land at B- overall and sit 23rd in the league.
But this isn’t a story about bad money alone. St. Louis also has three contracts that look like genuine steals.
Robert Thomas is the headliner. His $8.125 million AAV for the next five years is one of the best bargains in the league, plain and simple. If he stays healthy this season, there’s a case for him to start getting more national attention.
Then there are Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, the two players who arrived in St. Louis together in the offer sheet coup. Holloway’s $7.8-million AAV over five years and Broberg’s $8-million AAV over six years both earned A grades.
The short-term picture is manageable. The Blues have a little over $4 million in cap space right now, though that could get tighter next season when Jimmy Snuggerud, Jake Neighbours, and Logan Mailloux are up for extensions. On the flip side, Brandon Carlo, Torey Krug, and Jordan Binnington will come off the books, which should open up more than $15 million in cap room, and the cap is expected to rise again next summer.
So while the Blues sit in the middle of the pack for now, that’s not necessarily a bad place to be. The bigger job for GM Alex Steen is keeping the books flexible enough to make room if a major trade opportunity shows up.
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When the Blues used the 16th pick on Maddox Dagenais in the 2026 NHL Draft, they were buying into a player their management and scouting staff believe has taken meaningful steps in both body and game. The appeal is pretty straightforward from St. Louis side: a forward who has added size, kept developing his skill set and shown enough versatility to fit different roles as he keeps climbing.
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The Blues have spent the offseason trying to balance upside with certainty, and two of their forward decisions sit right at the center of that conversation. Connor McMichael arrives after a trade and a fresh start in a new system, carrying a $6.75 million AAV as he tries to turn a productive season in Washington into something even more stable in St. Louis. Dylan Holloway, meanwhile, was rewarded with a five-year extension at a $7.75 million AAV after showing he can be a real difference-maker when healthy.
Holloways fit is easy to understand because of the way he has already flashed alongside Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud on one of the leagues better first lines. McMichaels situation is a little trickier, since he is being asked to adjust to a completely new environment while living up to a sizable commitment. For the Blues, the real question is not whether either player can help, but which deal is more likely to look uneasy as the years go by. [Read more 🡒]