Greg McElroy thinks Tennessee’s run of momentum stops in Columbia.
The ESPN analyst picked South Carolina to edge No. 11 Tennessee 27-24 on Saturday afternoon at Williams-Brice Stadium, framing the matchup as “a potential flat spot for the Volunteers” after last week’s 26-10 statement win over Alabama. The Volunteers improved to 6-1 by shutting down the Tide behind DeSean Bishop’s 159 rushing yards, but McElroy said the emotional high from that kind of game can carry a price the next week.
“Tennessee just went to war last week against Alabama. Looked amazing doing it.
But we’ve seen teams elevate and then come back to earth the following week,” McElroy said. “And I think that could happen for Tennessee right here because Fuller and Sellers, they’re going to get yards when that first defender misses.”
South Carolina enters the game off a bye after its 38-19 win at then-No. 16 Florida, a game in which LaNorris Sellers accounted for five touchdowns. McElroy sees the Gamecocks’ style as the kind of trouble Tennessee doesn’t want on the road: an offense that keeps driving through contact and punishes missed tackles.
“South Carolina’s offense, their strength is running through contact. They average almost four yards after contact per carry.
That’s top three in college football,” McElroy said. “They are 105th in yards after contact allowed at just under three yards after contact allowed.
That’s a lot.”
That attack, powered by running back Matt Fuller and Sellers, lines up against a Tennessee defense that McElroy believes has to be cleaner at the point of attack. He also pointed to the Volunteers’ quarterback situation, with Josh Heupel declining to name a starter for the third straight week.
George MacIntyre is 2-0 as the starter and has guided Tennessee to three straight wins since replacing Faizon Brandon, who opened the year as the starter before injuring his right shoulder against Texas on Sept. 26.
“George has played smart and efficient,” Heupel said Monday.
Still, McElroy said he would stick with the sophomore even if Brandon’s health changes.
“Do I think he’s hurt? Yeah, I do. I think the right shoulder’s a problem, but I don’t know if he’s the best option for Tennessee going forward right now,” McElroy said.
He also drew a sharp contrast in how the two quarterbacks have been protected. “Brandon, he’s taken 15 sacks on 139 dropbacks.
MacIntyre is not putting them in difficult spots. He’s taken just three on 84.”
For Tennessee, McElroy argued, the passing game doesn’t need to carry the load anyway. “Heupel’s teams are 42-4 when they throw it fewer than 30 times,” he said. “So, his quarterback’s job is don’t mess it up, make good decisions, get the ball out.”
On the other side of the ball, McElroy called Tennessee’s defensive line “elite” and singled out Xavier Gilliam, the Montgomery Village, Maryland, native who transferred from Penn State this offseason. “I think he’s the best defensive tackle in the sport that I’ve seen so far this year,” McElroy said.
He also highlighted edge rusher Tyree Weathersby, who has six and a half sacks, and said his job is clear against Sellers. “He’s got six and a half sacks. His job is to kind of keep LaNorris Sellers in the pocket,” McElroy said.
McElroy believes the sack battle could end up mattering most. He noted Shane Beamer’s record when his teams lose that category and tied it to Tennessee’s own ability to get after the quarterback.
“Beamer’s teams are 10-24 when they lose the sack margin. Heupel’s teams are 49-6 when they have three or more sacks in the ballgame,” McElroy said. “Well, the good news for Tennessee, they’re averaging more than four a game right now.”
Even with that edge, McElroy still expects a tight one. Tennessee’s defense, he said, has been excellent, ranking sixth in points per drive allowed, but he still leaned to the home team.
“Tennessee’s defense, they’re amazing. Sixth in points per drive allowed.
They’re going to make this thing super tight,” McElroy said. “But I just lean toward the Gamecocks in this game.”
Tennessee is off Oct. 31 after the trip to Columbia, while South Carolina travels to Oklahoma that same day.
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