We’re into Week 9, and the upset board is loaded again.
Last week’s picks cashed three times in five tries, with Duke (+113), Kansas (+133) and UCF (+223) all pulling off outright wins. Tennessee and Houston both got close, but not close enough. For the season, this column is sitting around 3.3 units to the good, and the goal this week is simple: keep the run going.
Cal over NC State
Cal’s season has gone off the rails, but there are at least a few signs that the Golden Bears are starting to stabilize. They were competitive with SMU for a half last week, and the midseason change at offensive coordinator seems to have given them a little lift.
NC State, meanwhile, is in a strange spot after firing Dave Doeren on Saturday and heading into its first game without him. The question is whether the Wolfpack get a short-term spark from the change or whether they finally start looking like a team that has been sliding since the Vanderbilt loss in September. The wager here is that the mood around the program doesn’t flip fast enough.
Pick: Cal to win (30% on Kalshi)
South Carolina over Oklahoma
Oklahoma keeps inviting skepticism whenever it’s laying points in SEC play, and that’s where this one lands. The Sooners did beat Mississippi State last week in Starkville, but that game looked like it could have turned out differently if Kamario Taylor were healthy. Oklahoma posted its best offensive showing of the season at 6.7 yards per play, yet that still doesn’t feel like proof that the offense has turned a corner.
Mississippi State also has the worst defense Oklahoma has faced since Week 1, and the Sooners still needed an 8-point win against a backup quarterback. South Carolina also comes in with the fresher legs, having played only one game since its bye while Oklahoma is on its fourth straight Saturday.
Pick: South Carolina to win (36% on Novig)
Iowa State over Oklahoma State
Iowa State has looked rough in its last two outings, taking blowout losses to BYU and Arizona. Still, this matchup looks tighter than the market suggests, and that’s enough to make the Cyclones appealing at the current number.
There’s also a stylistic wrinkle here. Arizona and Oklahoma State run similar offensive systems, and Iowa State is getting a second straight look at that kind of attack.
Oklahoma State’s offense has been excellent, but the defense has been porous enough to leave the door open. That gives Iowa State a real shot to stay in range and win it late.
USC over Ohio State
This pick starts with the Ohio State quarterback situation. Julian Sayin is out, and that matters.
The Buckeyes have not looked settled behind him, with 3-star freshman Luke Fahey getting the nod over former 5-star Tavien St. Claire last week.
Ryan Day hasn’t named a starter for this game, and that uncertainty is hard to ignore.
USC also gets some credit for how it looked in a road loss to Wisconsin. The Trojans’ defense played well enough there; it was the offense that let them down badly. Still, there’s enough reason to think Lincoln Riley can get this group sorted out at home, where USC has been much better since joining the Big Ten.
Northwestern over Oregon
Northwestern has been putting together a quietly strong season, and the numbers back that up. Chip Kelly’s offense with Aidan Chiles ranks eighth nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. The defense hasn’t been a liability either.
Oregon may have more size and speed up front, but that doesn’t fully explain why Northwestern is catching points here. The Ducks have been awful on offense this season, and injuries only add to the concern. Quarterback Dante Moore remains out, and plenty of other key players were also sidelined last week against Illinois.
In Other News...
Oklahoma Is Bracing For South Carolina At Full Strength
South Carolina heads to Norman on Saturday afternoon for just the second meeting in program history, and the Gamecocks arrive with some momentum after beating Tennessee last week. Oklahoma is coming off a win at Mississippi State, but Brent Venables and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle made it clear this is the kind of matchup that gets their attention, especially with South Carolina showing it can stress opponents on both sides of the ball.
The Sooners are preparing for a complete challenge, from the Gamecocks offense to a defense that has been tough to sort out. With playmakers on both sides of the line of scrimmage, South Carolina gives Oklahoma a chance to find out how it handles a physical SEC opponent that has plenty working in its favor right now. [Read more 🡒]
South Carolina Faces A Brutal Test To Keep Its SEC Push Alive
South Carolina heads to Norman on Saturday for a tricky SEC road test against Oklahoma, with kickoff set for 4:15 p.m. The Gamecocks are carrying the momentum of a win over Tennessee, while the Sooners come in off a victory against Mississippi State, setting up a matchup that carries plenty of weight for both teams as the conference race tightens.
There is still plenty around the game to monitor beyond the matchup itself, including South Carolinas injury situation, the betting market that has installed Oklahoma as the favorite, and the weather outlook for game day. For a Gamecocks team trying to keep its SEC push on track, this trip feels like the kind that can say a lot about where things are headed next. [Read more 🡒]
South Carolinas Defensive Turnaround Against Tennessee Was About More Than Halftime Speech
South Carolinas defense looked like a different unit after halftime against Tennessee, and the turnaround had plenty to do with the details that often decide close SEC games. Defensive tackle Kelby Collins and lineman Noah Clark pointed to the groups focus and effort as the difference, while Shane Beamer said the staff also leaned into a few tactical changes that helped settle things down.
The Gamecocks tightened up with more five-man pressure looks and more man coverage, and the results showed up quickly as Tennessee managed just three points after the break. It was the kind of second-half correction that can get lost in the larger story of a game, but for South Carolina it served as a reminder that the fix was about execution as much as any sideline message. [Read more 🡒]