South Carolina’s SEC opener has all the ingredients for a tight one: two unbeaten teams, two explosive offenses and two quarterbacks who can make a defense pay if it loses discipline for even a snap.
The Gamecocks are 2-0 and host Mississippi State on Sept. 19 at 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network, with South Carolina fresh off a 45-9 win over Towson and the Bulldogs coming in after a 38-13 victory over Minnesota.
On paper, this is the kind of game that should tilt toward offense. In reality, the defense that gets the better of the other one may decide it.
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer is 1-0 against Mississippi State, though he’s still looking for his first Week 3 win after going 0-5. Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, hired in 2024, is 0-8 in SEC road games.
The offensive matchup is a fun one. South Carolina offensive coordinator Kendal Briles and Lebby are brothers-in-law, and both spent nine years working under Art Briles at Baylor. When they’ve matched up as offensive coordinators from 2020-23, Lebby’s teams won two of three, and all three games had plenty of fireworks.
That tracks with what these teams have shown so far. Mississippi State is second in the country in total offense at 620.5 yards per game, while South Carolina sits fifth at 573.5. Both are running the ball well too, with the Gamecocks third nationally at 341.5 rushing yards per game and the Bulldogs 10th at 298.5.
The quarterback duel is just as interesting. South Carolina senior LaNorris Sellers and Mississippi State sophomore Kamario Taylor both bring dual-threat ability, so points should be there. But the real separator may be defense.
South Carolina enters with the stronger numbers on that side, ranking eighth nationally in total defense at 191 yards allowed per game. Mississippi State is 48th at 285. The run defense numbers are solid on both sides as well, with the Gamecocks allowing 60.5 rushing yards per game and the Bulldogs 75.5.
South Carolina has a few clear edges. Sellers has already played two seasons of SEC football, while this will be Taylor’s first SEC road start. Williams-Brice Stadium can be a tough place to operate, especially if the game tightens late.
The Gamecocks are also expected to get important pieces back. Edge rusher Dylan Stewart and top transfer left tackle Jacarrius Peak are both probable after missing the first two games with injuries. South Carolina could use Stewart’s presence up front as it tries to keep Taylor from getting comfortable.
There’s also momentum in the return game. Vicari Swain scored twice on punt returns against Towson, setting a program record with five career punt return touchdowns.
Defensively, South Carolina has given up just nine points across its first two games against Kent State and Towson. Clayton White said linebackers will be a major factor, and that group has been led so far by Justin Okoronkwo.
Mississippi State has its own case. The Bulldogs already handled a Power 4 opponent and did it convincingly, which means they’ve shown something South Carolina hasn’t yet.
Taylor has been sharp and is 20th nationally in total yards with 581. Anthony Evans III has been a major target, ranking 11th nationally and first in the SEC with 14 catches for 239 receiving yards.
South Carolina’s passing game still has some cleaning up to do. The receivers had drops in Week 2 and didn’t look fully in sync with Sellers.
Beamer also singled out Mississippi State’s protection and the experience on the Bulldogs’ roster, which is part of what makes this matchup so tricky to call.
Injury-wise, South Carolina lists Stewart and Peak as probable, Carter Miller as questionable, and Josiah Thompson, Lucian Anderson III, Jayden Sellers and A.J. Holloway as out. Mississippi State lists Kelley Jones as probable, Zakari Tillman as questionable, and Diesel Moye and Ayden Williams as out.
Prediction: South Carolina 28, Mississippi State 24. The numbers suggest a shootout, but both defenses have been good enough to keep this from turning into a track meet. It may come down to one late stop, and the Gamecocks have a habit of rising when they’re not the favorite.
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