Seton Hall Slides, Big East Stumbles: What Wednesday’s Results Mean for the NCAA Tournament Picture
Seton Hall’s 72-60 loss at Villanova on Wednesday night didn’t just sting-it sent a clear signal about the Pirates’ slipping NCAA Tournament hopes and the Big East’s increasingly fragile standing on the national stage. After a strong start to the season, Seton Hall has now lost five of its last seven, and the bracketology math isn’t doing them any favors.
The Pirates, now 16-7 overall and 6-6 in Big East play, dropped from “Last Four In” to “First Four Out” in CBS Sports’ latest bracket projection. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that opened the year 14-2 and looked like a strong at-large candidate. But the recent slide includes not only tough Quad 1 losses-like Wednesday’s defeat at Villanova-but also damaging Quad 2 setbacks, including a home loss to Butler and a road stumble at DePaul.
Even during their hot start, Seton Hall’s underlying metrics were a bit of a red flag. They never climbed higher than No. 43 in KenPom, which suggested the win-loss record may have been outpacing the on-court performance.
Now, that regression is hitting hard-and it’s not just hurting Seton Hall. It’s dragging down the Big East as a whole.
Big East in Trouble
Right now, the Big East is looking at a potential repeat of 2022, when just three teams made the NCAA Tournament. UConn, St. John’s, and Villanova are in solid shape, but beyond that, it’s shaky ground.
Butler’s 97-87 double-overtime loss at Providence on Wednesday marked the Bulldogs’ third straight defeat and nudged them further off the bubble. Creighton, once a hopeful after a 6-3 start in conference play, has now dropped three straight, and their at-large hopes are fading fast. No other Big East team ranks inside the NET top 80.
That’s a far cry from last year, when five Big East teams danced in March. And it’s a stark reminder of how fast things can shift. According to KenPom, the Big East is currently the lowest-rated high-major conference-something that hasn’t happened since 2021.
Seton Hall’s Road Ahead
All is not lost for the Pirates, but the path forward is narrow. They’ll get another shot at both No.
3 UConn (Feb. 28) and No. 22 St.
John’s (March 6), and those games are now must-win territory if Seton Hall wants to claw its way back into the field. The Big East Tournament will also be critical.
With limited opportunities to pick up quality wins, the margin for error is razor-thin.
Bracketology Shakeups
Wednesday night’s slate didn’t look like a blockbuster on paper, but it delivered some major movement in the projected field.
Oklahoma State made the biggest jump, leaping from “First Four Out” to a projected No. 11 seed after a 99-92 upset of No. 16 BYU.
That win-Oklahoma State’s first Quad 1 victory of the season-adds to a résumé that already includes solid Quad 2 wins over Texas A&M and UCF. The Cowboys are now 16-6 overall and 4-5 in Big 12 play, and they’ve officially put themselves in the at-large conversation.
Then came the shocker out west.
Gonzaga, ranked No. 6, took a stunning 87-80 loss at Portland-a Quad 3 defeat that could’ve been a seeding disaster. But the Bulldogs held onto their spot as the final No. 3 seed, thanks in part to Michigan State’s stumble at Minnesota. The Spartans were in position to potentially leapfrog Gonzaga, but their 76-73 loss to the Gophers (a Quad 2 game) kept them in check.
Ironically, Gonzaga actually gained a Quad 1 win overnight. Arizona State’s 71-63 victory at Utah bumped the Sun Devils up in the NET rankings, turning the Zags’ earlier win over ASU from a Quad 2 to a Quad 1. That gives Gonzaga a 5-1 record in Quad 1 games and helped them maintain their standing in the “wins above bubble” (WAB) metric, where they now sit 12th overall.
UConn Back on the 1 Line
The final No. 1 seed is once again changing hands. This time, it’s UConn sliding into that coveted spot, replacing Iowa State.
The Huskies may trail Iowa State and Illinois in performance-based metrics like KenPom (where they’re No. 8), but resume-based stats tell a different story. UConn ranks No. 3 in WAB and No. 2 in strength of record, giving them the edge in the eyes of the bracket model.
Whether they can hold onto that No. 1 seed will depend in large part on Friday night’s marquee matchup against No. 22 St.
John’s at Madison Square Garden. That game could have major implications not just for UConn’s seeding, but for the Big East’s standing as a whole.
Navigating the Rematch Maze
As we get closer to Selection Sunday, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee faces the usual challenge of avoiding early-round rematches-both within conferences and from nonconference play.
Here’s how it breaks down:
- Conference rematches: Teams that played once during the regular season can meet as early as the second round. If they played twice, they can’t meet until the Sweet 16. If they met three times, they’re kept apart until the Elite Eight.
- Nonconference rematches: These are avoided in the First Four and first round. The committee will also try to avoid them in the second round, but won’t move teams off their natural seed lines just to prevent a rematch.
With more high-major teams scheduling each other in nonconference play-and some conferences expanding to the point where not every team plays each other twice-these rematch rules are becoming harder to navigate. The committee has its work cut out.
The Big Picture
With just over a month until Selection Sunday, the bracket is starting to take shape-but it’s far from set in stone. Teams like Seton Hall are teetering on the edge, while programs like Oklahoma State are surging at the right time. Gonzaga dodged a bullet, UConn is back among the elite, and the Big East is hanging on by a thread.
The next few weeks will be all about seizing opportunity-and for bubble teams, every possession, every win, and every metric shift matters.