Bracket Watch: Michigan Climbs to No. 1 Overall Seed, Kansas Makes Statement Without Its Star
There’s a new team sitting atop the bracket projections, and it’s not the one many expected. After Arizona’s narrow loss at Kansas on Monday night, Michigan has leapfrogged the Wildcats to become the projected No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports’ latest Bracketology update. Both teams have just one loss, but it’s Michigan’s overall résumé-and its dominance across key evaluation metrics-that’s nudging them ahead in the eyes of the selection model.
Let’s break down how the Wolverines got there, why Arizona is still very much in the conversation, and how Kansas just made a major move without its most electric player on the floor.
Michigan’s Case for No. 1: A Profile Built for March
Michigan’s rise to the top of the projected bracket isn’t just about Arizona’s stumble-it’s about what the Wolverines have built all season. They’re sitting at No. 1 in most of the team sheet metrics the selection committee leans on, including predictive models like KenPom and Torvik, as well as résumé-based metrics like Wins Above Bubble (WAB). That kind of across-the-board dominance matters, especially when resumes are as close as Michigan’s and Arizona’s.
The Wolverines have logged 16 combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, compared to Arizona’s 14. Both teams boast four top-tier Quad 1A victories, but Michigan’s edge comes in part from its scheduling discipline-they’ve only played three Quad 4 games, while Arizona’s played seven. That may not seem like a big deal, but when the committee is splitting hairs between two elite teams, the strength of the full schedule matters.
Of course, Michigan’s lone loss-at home to Wisconsin-doesn’t look great on paper. It’s a Quad 2 setback.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s only defeat came on the road in one of the toughest places to play in college basketball: Allen Fieldhouse. That’s a Quad 1 loss, and a highly competitive one at that.
If both teams stay on a one-loss trajectory heading into Selection Sunday, that detail could come back into play. But for now, Michigan’s metrics and résumé are doing the heavy lifting.
Arizona’s Slip, Kansas’ Surge
Arizona had its shot to solidify its grip on the top overall seed, but let it slip in the second half against Kansas. The Wildcats led by 11 early after halftime, looking poised to notch another marquee win. But the offense cooled down just as the Allen Fieldhouse crowd heated up, and Kansas stormed back to pull off an 82-78 win-even without star freshman Darryn Peterson, who’s widely projected as the potential No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
That’s the kind of win that moves the needle, and it did just that for the Jayhawks.
Kansas jumped to a No. 2 seed in the latest Bracketology projections, bumping Nebraska down a line in the process. That might raise some eyebrows-after all, Kansas has five losses, while Nebraska has just two-but this is where the selection committee’s approach becomes more nuanced than just counting losses.
Why Kansas Is Climbing
Kansas now owns seven Quad 1 wins-more than any team not currently projected as a No. 1 seed. That includes victories over Arizona, Tennessee, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and NC State. Those are the kinds of wins that not only boost a team’s résumé but also signal a high ceiling come March.
By comparison, Nebraska has just two wins against teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET: Illinois and Michigan State. That’s not nothing, but it doesn’t stack up against Kansas’ collection of high-end victories. The Jayhawks also moved ahead of Nebraska in KenPom following their win over Arizona, further strengthening their case in the predictive metrics department.
This doesn’t mean Nebraska is out of the conversation. In fact, they’ve got a massive opportunity Tuesday night against Purdue.
A win there could swing the momentum right back in their favor and put them back on the No. 2 seed line. That’s how fluid things are at this stage of the season-one game can shift the entire bracket landscape.
Bottom Line
Michigan’s rise to the top seed line is a testament to the strength of its full body of work. Arizona’s still right there, and if the Wildcats bounce back and keep winning, this debate is far from over. Meanwhile, Kansas just reminded everyone why they're a perennial threat in March-even without their top player.
With Selection Sunday still weeks away, there’s plenty of basketball left to be played-and plenty of movement still to come. But for now, Michigan’s sitting in the driver’s seat, Arizona’s looking to regroup, and Kansas is charging hard at just the right time.