ESPN’s SP+ model is leaning toward South Carolina this weekend, but only by a hair.
Bill Connelly’s predictive metric, which he describes as “intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” has the Gamecocks edging Kentucky 28-26 on Saturday. That call gives Kentucky the cover at the current DraftKings line of +3, while the total lands just below the 54.5-point over/under.
The projection is part of a busy Week 5 SP+ slate that also includes picks like Ohio State over Iowa 30-19, Alabama over Mississippi State 32-27, Florida over Missouri 28-26, Georgia over Vanderbilt 39-14, and Tennessee over Auburn 30-21. Connelly’s list also has BYU over TCU 28-22, Houston over UCF 29-24, Notre Dame over North Carolina 36-13, and Miami over Clemson 33-15, along with razor-thin calls in Virginia Tech-Pitt and UConn-Syracuse.
On paper, Kentucky and South Carolina are arriving in very different places. Kentucky is 3-1 and 1-1 in SEC play, and the Wildcats are back in the AP poll for the first time since 2023.
South Carolina sits at 2-2 and 0-2 in the league, with pressure building around Shane Beamer and quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who has struggled. The Gamecocks will also be without edge rusher Dylan Stewart on Saturday after what was described as “egregious contact” with an Alabama player in Week 4.
Even so, the matchup still matters most in the stadium. South Carolina gets Kentucky at home, and that kind of setting can matter plenty against a first-year head coach/QB pairing in the SEC.
The game is set for a 4:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday on SEC Network.
In Other News...
Dylan Stewart Now Faces A Bigger South Carolina Question
Dylan Stewarts status has quickly become one of the bigger talking points around South Carolina after Shane Beamer confirmed the edge rusher is suspended and away from the team for now. The situation stems from an in-game incident in which Stewart threw a punch, a play the SEC later classified as egregious contact, and it has put the focus on how the Gamecocks handle discipline as much as on what Stewart means on the field.
Beamer said the decision about Stewarts return will be his, tied to whether the sophomore meets the programs standards and shows the accountability the staff expects. For South Carolina, the issue is bigger than one missed game or one roster spot, because it now asks how the program balances talent, trust and the message it wants to send moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Florida State Has A Growing QB Concern At The Worst Time
As Florida State keeps sorting through a quarterback situation that has started to feel more pressing by the week, the broader conversation around the position has only grown louder across college football. A few of the names under the microscope include South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Jayden Maiava, Marcel Reed and Ashton Daniels, each of whom has been asked to carry a heavy load as their teams try to steady themselves and build momentum in conference play.
Sellers, in particular, remains part of that wider evaluation because his play sits at the center of what South Carolina wants to be offensively. The Gamecocks are still looking for cleaner execution and more consistent production from the position, and with important games ahead, the next stretch figures to say plenty about how quickly these quarterbacks can answer the questions around them. [Read more 🡒]
Kentucky Faces An Early SEC Test That Could Reshape Its Ranking Push
South Carolina is already in a spot where every SEC game feels weighted a little heavier, and the next one comes with extra urgency. The Gamecocks have dropped their first two conference matchups, and now they get No. 24 Kentucky at home in a game that could say plenty about how realistic their College Football Playoff push remains. LaNorris Sellers has had a rough time finding his footing in league play, which only adds to the pressure on a team that needs to turn the page quickly.
Kentucky brings a defense that has earned national respect, even if the Wildcats offense has left plenty to be desired. Oddsmakers have still installed South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite, a sign that home field and talent keep the Gamecocks in the conversation. The question is whether they can answer it on the field before the SEC schedule starts to close off the margin for error. [Read more 🡒]