Week 6 brings a fresh round of upset hunting, and the early numbers from this college football season point to a market that’s been stubbornly off in a few places.
Through Week 5, underdogs of +105 or more have cashed outright only 17.6% of the time. From 2021 through 2025, teams in that range were winning 25% of the time in the first five weeks. The same story shows up in the +200 to +400 band, where underdogs have won just 14% of games this season after historically landing at a 27% clip through Week 5.
The bigger wrinkle appears to be the Group of 6. The entire G6 has only three outright wins over P4 opponents this year: UMass over Rutgers, Tulsa over Oklahoma State and UNLV over Cal, against 73 losses.
Even in G6 vs. G6 games, underdog results look skewed.
That could be a small-sample quirk, or it could reflect how difficult it is to measure team strength right now, especially where less is known about impact players than at the P4 level.
The one place where underdogs are still tracking close to expectation is P4 vs. P4.
Through Oct. 3, those matchups have produced a 26-73 record for underdogs, a 26.3% win rate against an expected 27.2%. For dogs priced between +200 and +400 in those games, the record is 10-20, which is a 33.3% hit rate versus an expected 26.7%.
With that in mind, here are five upset calls for Week 6.
Iowa State over BYU
Iowa State has been more competitive than expected under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers. The Cyclones are 3-2 overall and 2-0-1 ATS against P4 opposition this season.
The stronger part of the case here is BYU. The Cougars look overrated to the market, and they do not feel like a top-10 team.
The passing game is the concern, even with Bear Bachmeier, who is a solid Big 12 quarterback but also capable of the kind of inefficient outing he had last week against TCU. This also sets up as a clear lookahead spot, with Notre Dame coming to town in Week 7.
South Carolina over Florida
This one is a longer shot, but South Carolina looks like a team worth buying at the bottom of the market. Florida is coming off a blowout loss to Mizzou, and the Gators may not be done sliding.
If South Carolina’s coaching staff still has the locker room, the Gamecocks have the ingredients to make this uncomfortable for UF. Dylan Stewart is an elite pass rusher if he plays, though his suspension status is still TBA, and South Carolina’s run defense ranks in the top 40 in yards per carry allowed.
Florida has Texas, the No. 1 team, waiting next week and then Georgia on Halloween. If South Carolina shows up, Florida could be caught flat-footed.
Nebraska over Indiana
This one could age badly fast, and that’s part of the risk. Still, Nebraska has the better offensive profile and a solid defense.
Indiana has mostly faced light resistance this season; its only game against a team with half a pulse was Northwestern, and that nearly turned into an outright loss. Nebraska gets Indiana at home, and the Hoosiers are staring at Ohio State in a top-10 matchup next week.
That is a classic look-ahead spot, and Indiana looks more vulnerable in 2026 than it did in 2025.
Pick: Nebraska to win (27% on Novig)
USC over Penn State
USC has not been reliable in cross-country road spots under Lincoln Riley, but this is not a game where Penn State should be laying the favorite tag. The Nittany Lions have been exposed as a weaker version of recent Iowa State teams, and this year’s roster simply has not been good enough, as Wisconsin and Northwestern have already shown. USC’s offense should be the best unit on the field by a wide margin, and that gives the Trojans a real path to a road win.
Pick: USC to win (49% on Kalshi)
Michigan State over Illinois
Illinois has been a disaster on defense. By opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed, the Fighting Illini are 135th out of 138 FBS teams.
The offense has some life, but Illinois is still 105th in net success rate. That is not the profile of a team that should be a road favorite against a P4 opponent.
Michigan State does not bring much flash, but the Spartans are at least average nationally in rushing success rate, and that should give them a chance to move the ball at home.
In Other News...
South Carolinas Return Game Just Put Nyck Harbor On Notice
South Carolina made a noticeable tweak on special teams against Mississippi State, turning its kickoff return duties from Nyck Harbor to Jaquel Holman during the game. The switch was not a surprise in the sense that both players have been in the mix this season, but it did add a little more clarity to how the Gamecocks are evaluating the role as the year goes on.
Special teams coordinator Matthew Smiley said Holman has shown improvement and brings a fearless approach to returning kicks, which helps explain why the staff wanted to see him in that spot. Holman has averaged 23 yards on four returns this season, while Harbor has averaged 19.3 yards on four returns, leaving South Carolina with at least one more interesting decision to sort through as the return game develops. [Read more 🡒]
South Carolina Is Still Chasing A Defensive Line Target To Watch
South Carolina is continuing to work the board on the defensive line, and 2027 prospect Gehrig Felix has emerged as a name worth watching. The South Alabama commit made a visit to the Gamecocks for their game against Kentucky, where he met with coaches and spent time talking through how he could fit into Travian Robertsons defense.
Felix has been productive this senior season, with 19 tackles and four for loss in six games, and that kind of early impact is exactly why South Carolina remains interested. For the Gamecocks, the visit was another chance to make a pitch to a player already pledged elsewhere, and the next steps in that evaluation will be worth tracking. [Read more 🡒]
South Carolina Faces One Huge Florida Question Before Kickoff
South Carolina heads into Saturdays trip to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium still searching for traction in SEC play, and the challenge gets no easier against No. 16 Florida at 12:45 p.m. on SEC Network. The Gamecocks are 2-3 overall and 0-3 in the league, while the Gators come in at 4-1 and 3-1 in conference play, which gives this matchup a clear weight for a South Carolina team trying to steady itself before the schedule gets any harsher.
Beyond the records and the setting, the pregame picture is shaped by the usual Saturday considerations that can swing a road game: South Carolinas injury situation, the betting line that tilts toward Florida, and a weather forecast that could factor into how the afternoon unfolds. For the Gamecocks, the bigger question is how many answers they can find in a place where the margin for error tends to shrink quickly. [Read more 🡒]