September, and maybe October too, could be a final run for a few familiar Mariners faces before the roster starts to look very different again.
The big picture is already hanging over everything. After last offseason’s “run it back” approach, the next winter feels like the one that finally brings real turnover. And if you want to look even farther ahead, there’s the other obvious wrinkle: a likely lockout, and no guarantee there will even be a 2027 season.
With that in mind, here are the Mariners veterans who seem most likely to be somewhere else next year.
Randy Arozarena is the hardest one to replace on the field and maybe the hardest one to keep financially. Even with Cal Raleigh and Luis Castillo looming in the background, Arozarena has been the player most responsible for making a disappointing season feel entertaining. He was Seattle’s only All-Star in July, and he has kept delivering in big moments.
The problem for the Mariners is what this version of Arozarena might cost. Even before his season took off, a return felt doubtful.
Now he has a real case to be the top bat on the free-agent market, and that kind of year can push a player into nine-figure territory. Seattle has almost never operated in that neighborhood.
Robbie Ray and Robinson Canó are the only free agents the club has ever signed for more than $100 million, and both contracts eventually ended with the Mariners moving on before they ran their full course.
J.P. Crawford is another familiar name who appears headed for a change, even if the fit has always felt more complicated than the emotion around him.
Back in May, Crawford told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, “I’m willing to help this team and I want to be a Mariner for life, right? I think this is the best way to do that.”
That came as he was getting ready to shift to third base in deference to Colt Emerson, a move that said plenty about Crawford’s approach and why he has been so easy for fans to embrace since 2019. But his five-year, $51 million deal is nearing its end, and the Mariners’ future at shortstop makes the path back pretty narrow. Emerson is the shortstop of the future, and Crawford is no longer giving Seattle above-average production at the plate or in the field.
Victor Robles also looks like a tough fit for 2027. The Mariners can bring him back if they want, but only by exercising a $9 million club option, and that seems highly unlikely.
His resurgence with Seattle in 2024 made for a fun story, and Dan Wilson may even be underusing him. Still, the bottom line is the bottom line: an 81 OPS+ and -0.2 rWAR over the last two seasons, spread across just 92 games because of several serious and nagging injuries. At this point, the Mariners look ready to move on.
Luke Raley may be the clearest non-tender candidate of the group. Seattle has 10 players set for arbitration this winter, and he looks like the one most likely to be cut loose rather than given a raise.
That would have been a surprise a year ago, when the Mariners decided to tender him a contract for 2026 after a rough 2025. He started this season well enough to make that decision look smart, posting a .932 OPS and 13 home runs through the end of May.
Then everything went the other way. Raley finished his last 41 games with a .441 OPS and two homers before season-ending arm surgery wiped out the rest of his year. Over his last 168 games, he has a 97 OPS+ and -0.3 rWAR, production the Mariners can find elsewhere without paying more than the $2.05 million he’s due now.
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