Seahawks Take Control of NFC West - But the Path to the No. 1 Seed Isn’t Straightforward
The Seattle Seahawks walked into Week 16 sitting behind the 49ers in the NFC West and holding the No. 5 seed in the conference. They walked out with a whole lot more - the division lead and a real shot at locking down the NFC’s top seed. But while they’re now in the driver’s seat, there are still a few curves ahead before they can cruise into the playoffs with home-field advantage.
Let’s break down what’s at stake over the final two weeks of the season, and how Monday Night Football - yes, the 49ers vs. Colts game - could shape Seattle’s playoff path.
The NFC Playoff Picture After Week 16
Here’s where things stand:
- Seattle Seahawks: 12-3 (clinched playoff spot)
- Chicago Bears: 11-4 (clinched playoff spot)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 10-5 (clinched NFC East)
- Los Angeles Rams: 11-4 (clinched playoff spot)
- San Francisco 49ers: 11-4 or 10-5 (clinched playoff spot)
- Carolina Panthers: 8-7
- Green Bay Packers: 9-5-1
- Detroit Lions: 8-7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-8
The Seahawks are sitting pretty at 12-3, but the job isn’t done yet. Depending on how things shake out on Monday night - specifically, how the 49ers fare against the Colts - Seattle’s Week 17 outlook could change significantly.
If the 49ers Win: Seattle Can Clinch the West, But Not the 1 Seed
Let’s start with the scenario where San Francisco handles business on Monday night. That would mean Seattle could lock up the NFC West in Week 17, but the No. 1 seed would still be out of reach - at least for now.
Here’s what needs to happen for the Seahawks to clinch the division this week:
- Seattle beats Carolina, and
- Chicago beats or ties San Francisco, and
- Atlanta beats or ties the Rams
If all three dominoes fall, Seattle claims the NFC West crown for the first time since 2020. But they’d still need to play their starters in Week 18, with the top seed in the conference still up for grabs.
And here’s where it gets tricky: if the Seahawks and Bears finish with identical records, Chicago holds the tiebreaker thanks to a better conference record. So even if Seattle wraps up the division early, they can’t coast into the playoffs just yet.
If the 49ers Lose: Seattle Can Lock It All Up in Week 17
Now, let’s talk about the dream scenario for Seahawks fans - one that seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago.
If the 49ers fall to the Colts on Monday night, Seattle suddenly has a chance to clinch both the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in Week 17. That would mean a first-round bye and the road to the Super Bowl running through Lumen Field.
The clinch scenario is straightforward:
- Seattle beats Carolina, and
- 49ers beat or tie the Bears, and
- Falcons beat or tie the Rams
That’s the ticket. Win, get a little help, and Seattle can rest starters in Week 18 knowing they’ve got home-field advantage locked in.
But there’s one wrinkle: if the Seahawks lose to Carolina, their fate hangs on the Rams-Falcons game. A Rams win would all but seal the division for L.A., especially with a Week 18 matchup against the 3-12 Cardinals looming. But if the Rams slip up, Seattle stays in control heading into the final weekend.
One More Twist: Philip Rivers Enters the Chat
And just to add a little more intrigue to an already wild playoff picture, Monday night’s 49ers-Colts game features a familiar face - Philip Rivers. The veteran QB is 4-0 all-time against San Francisco and could play spoiler once again. If Rivers delivers, he could hand the Seahawks their clearest path to the NFC’s top seed.
What’s Next
For Seattle, it’s simple: win and watch. They’ve put themselves in position to control their destiny, but they’ll need a little help to avoid playing meaningful football in Week 18. Whether it’s scoreboard watching or scoreboard dominating, the Seahawks are very much in the NFC’s driver’s seat - but the road to the playoffs still has a few twists left.
Stay tuned. Week 17 is going to be a wild one.