NFL Week 3 brings a packed slate and a fresh batch of anytime touchdown bets, with a handful of names offering better value than the usual chalk. There’s Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trying to dodge an 0-3 start against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys meeting in Brazil, and a contender matchup on “Sunday Night Football” between the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos.
For bettors looking for scoring props, the sweet spot is somewhere between obvious and outrageous. Not the lock-it-in stars, not the deep-cut long shots. Just five options that stand out for Week 3.
David Montgomery is the first play, and the price is ugly at -105, but the setup is hard to ignore. Montgomery and Woody Marks were bottled up for 18 yards on 14 carries in Houston’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, a rough offensive night that ended without a touchdown for the Texans.
That was a jarring turn after Montgomery opened his Texans career with three scores against the Buffalo Bills. Now he gets an Indianapolis Colts defense that has been the worst statistically in the NFL, and one that has already become just the third team in NFL history to give up 500 yards of total offense in each of its first two games.
With Houston under pressure to avoid an 0-3 start in the AFC South, Montgomery feels like the kind of runner who can finish the job.
Seattle rookie Jadarian Price is another name worth a look, and the number is a little more appealing at +150. The Seahawks are 2-0 and can move to 3-0 with a win over the Washington Commanders, who are without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Seattle’s defense has allowed only 17 points through two games, the fewest by any team through two weeks since 2013, according to CBS Sports Research. Sam Darnold is also set to make his first start since suffering the “very unique soft-tissue injury.”
All of that points toward a run-heavy plan. Price still hasn’t scored a touchdown, though he has turned 26 touches into 118 yards.
He was on the injury report earlier this week with a chest injury, but practiced fully Friday and has no game designation. Emanuel Wilson handled the fourth quarter last week and carried 21 times for 92 yards.
Tee Higgins comes next at +175, and the matchup is friendly enough to make the number pop. Higgins has opened the season well, with three catches for 59 yards in Week 1 against the Buccaneers and five grabs for 95 yards against the Texans last Sunday, both team highs.
Now he gets the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose defense has not been a disaster, but whose offense under Aaron Rodgers has been rough. Higgins has already scored six touchdowns against Pittsburgh in his career, tied for his most against any opponent, and he has found the end zone in each of his last two games against the Steelers.
With so much attention likely landing on Ja’Marr Chase after his two-touchdown performance last week, Higgins should have room to work.
Harold Fannin Jr. is the longer shot at +235, but there’s a path here too. The Browns are coming off an upset win over the Buccaneers and return home against the Carolina Panthers.
Cleveland has a chance to make noise again, especially with Carolina missing star linebacker Devin Lloyd. The Panthers did beat Atlanta last week, but they also gave up 552 yards of total offense to the Chicago Bears in Week 1.
Cole Kmet caught one of Caleb Williams’ two passing touchdowns in that game, and the thought here is that Fannin can create similar problems for Carolina’s linebackers. After opening the year with two catches for 21 yards, he was more involved last Sunday with five receptions for 54 yards.
A Browns win and a Fannin touchdown pays +490.
The final pick is Broncos receiver Jaylen Waddle at +210. Denver responded in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars after looking rough in the opener, and Waddle was a big part of that bounce-back effort with eight catches for 138 yards, his highest yardage total in the last 22 games.
He still didn’t score, but the volume was there. Against the Rams, who allowed three passing touchdowns in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers and no rushing scores, Waddle looks positioned to be involved again.
Courtland Sutton had plenty to say about what Waddle brought to the offense, calling his day “very promising” and adding, “Watching him go out there and have the success that he had and seeing the competitive nature that he brings to the sideline and to our room and to our offense, to our locker room … he has that same desire to want to be successful,” Sutton said. “And to watch him go out there and be able to put together plays and having a day like that - I think that's only the tip of the iceberg for him.
We have more plays in our back pocket that we didn't even get to get to. And for him to be able go out there and do what he did and us be able to have the success, and him being able to go and put together a very efficient day today, it was very promising.
And I look forward to seeing where that goes the rest of the season.”
In Other News...
Seahawks Face A Drew Lock Decision That Could Backfire Fast
Sam Darnold is back in place as the Seahawks starting quarterback, which pushes Drew Lock back into the backup role and immediately puts Seattle in a familiar roster-management spot. Locks value is a little tricky to sort out because he has looked good enough to attract interest, he is playing on an expiring contract, and the team also has Jalen Milroe on hand as another option behind Darnold.
For Seattle, the question is whether to cash in on Lock now and try to get some draft capital back, or keep him around as insurance in case the quarterback room gets tested again. Trading him could bring back a pick, but moving on too soon also leaves the Seahawks thinner if they need a proven contingency plan, which is why this one could turn fast depending on how the market develops. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Could Be Facing A Bigger Seattle Backfield Threat Than Expected
Emanuel Wilson is in line for a bigger workload in Week 3, and that gives Seattles offense another layer for Washington to worry about. With Jadarian Price dealing with a chest injury, Wilsons role could expand after a strong showing in Week 2, putting him squarely in the conversation as a possible anytime touchdown option when the Seahawks meet the Commanders.
For a Seattle backfield that already looked like it might be shifting, Wilsons timing is notable. If Price is limited or unavailable, the Seahawks could lean more heavily on Wilson for carries and scoring chances, which is why DraftKings Sportsbook has him listed at +220 to score. It is the kind of late-week development that can change both game planning and fantasy expectations in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Seahawks Offense Just Found A Matchup Fans Should Love
Sam Darnold is expected back for the Seahawks in their upcoming game against the Commanders, and the timing could not be much better for an offense looking to keep moving. Washingtons secondary has been one of the early sore spots of the season, giving up big plays in the opening two weeks and failing to come away with an interception while surrendering seven touchdown passes.
Darnold already showed last season that this matchup can suit him, completing most of his throws and lighting up Washington for four scores. For Seattle, that history only adds to the appeal of getting its quarterback back in a game where the passing lanes could be there again, even if the bigger question is how quickly he settles back in after the injury layoff. [Read more 🡒]