With just two weeks left in the 2025 regular season, the NFC playoff picture is still a tangled mess of possibilities - and the Seattle Seahawks are right in the thick of it. While most of the playoff teams are locked in, the seedings are far from settled, and the dominoes could fall in several directions depending on how the next two weekends play out.
Where Things Stand
Five of the seven NFC playoff spots are essentially spoken for, and a sixth - Green Bay - is all but locked in. The Packers are in a strange position: they’re almost certain to make the postseason, but their final landing spot is still up in the air.
They’re most likely to slide in as the No. 7 seed, but there’s still a narrow path for them to either win the division and jump up to the No. 3 seed or, in a worst-case scenario, miss the playoffs entirely. Still, for all practical purposes, pencil them in at No.
The real drama is unfolding in the NFC South. Carolina and Tampa Bay are locked in a tight race for the division crown.
If Tampa knocks off Miami this week, the division title will come down to a Week 18 showdown between the Bucs and Panthers. But even if Tampa stumbles, that final game could still decide the South - assuming Carolina doesn’t take care of business against Seattle this weekend.
Either way, whoever emerges from the South will likely land the No. 4 seed.
Seattle’s Path: Simple on Paper, Complicated in Practice
For the Seahawks, the math is straightforward: win the final two games - against Carolina and San Francisco - and they clinch the NFC’s top seed and a first-round bye. That’s the cleanest, most favorable path.
But drop either of those games, and things get murky fast. A single loss could push Seattle down to the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, setting them up for a much tougher road.
Let’s break it down.
Scenario 1: Seattle Wins Out
If Seattle handles its business and finishes the season 2-0, they’ll lock up the No. 1 seed. That means a week off during the Wild Card round and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Their first playoff opponent would be the lowest remaining seed in the Divisional Round - and the most likely candidate? Green Bay.
The Packers, even as a No. 7 seed, could absolutely go on the road and knock off either Chicago or Philadelphia. If they do, they’d head to Seattle.
If not, the Seahawks would likely host either the Rams or 49ers - both familiar foes from the NFC West. It’s hard to envision a scenario where both LA and San Francisco lose on Wild Card weekend.
From there, a potential NFC Championship matchup against either the Rams or Niners seems very much in play. The road to the Super Bowl could go straight through the NFC West - just with the stops coming at Lumen Field.
Scenario 2: Seattle Drops a Game
If Seattle stumbles in either of the final two games, they’ll likely enter the playoffs as a Wild Card team. That changes everything.
Instead of a bye and home-field advantage, the Seahawks would be hitting the road in the first round - most likely to face Carolina, Tampa Bay, or Philadelphia. There’s a slim chance they could be matched up with another team, but those three are the most probable.
Assuming they survive the Wild Card round, they’d likely have to travel again - either to Chicago or to whichever NFC West team ends up winning the division. And if they make it to the conference title game, they’d probably be on the road again. It’s a tougher path, no doubt.
Home vs. Road: What the Numbers Say
Here’s where it gets interesting. While securing the No. 1 seed and playing at home sounds ideal - and it usually is - Seattle hasn’t exactly been dominant at Lumen Field this year.
In fact, they’ve played better football on the road. That doesn’t mean they wouldn’t welcome a home playoff run, but it does suggest they shouldn’t be intimidated by a road-heavy path.
And while the first-round bye is typically viewed as a major edge, recent history tells us it’s not a guaranteed ticket to the NFC Championship. Over the past four seasons, teams coming off a bye are just 5-3 in the Divisional Round. Just last year, the top-seeded Lions were bounced in their first playoff game.
There’s also the health factor. Right now, Seattle is relatively healthy.
A week off could help guys like Charles Cross and Coby Bryant get back to full strength, but unless there are setbacks in the final two weeks, the Seahawks aren’t limping into the postseason. That bye might be more valuable for other teams than it is for Seattle.
The Bottom Line
Yes, the easiest road to the Super Bowl is through the No. 1 seed - win two games at home and you’re in. But if Seattle slips and has to take the long way, there’s no reason to panic. This team has shown it can win on the road, and a Wild Card matchup against a team like Tampa or Philly might actually be a solid springboard into a deeper run.
Avoiding a Wild Card clash with the Rams or 49ers is another potential silver lining. If Seattle ends up facing one of their division rivals, it’s more likely to come later in the playoffs, when momentum and rhythm are already established.
Bottom line: Seattle controls its destiny. Win out, and they get the inside track.
But even if they don’t, this is a team built to compete anywhere, against anyone. The path might change - but the destination is still in reach.