The Seahawks keep putting themselves in the same bind, and defenses keep cashing in on it.
Through the first month of the 2026 season, Seattle’s third-down offense has been a mess. Entering Week 5, the Seahawks sit 31st in third-down conversion rate at 31.1%, a steep drop from last season’s 39.8% mark, which ranked 16th in the NFL.
That’s not a one-off issue. It’s a pattern, and it’s showing up in the way drives are unfolding.
The biggest problem is how often Seattle arrives at third down in a bad spot. When you strip out quarterback kneels, the Seahawks are facing an average of 7.9 yards to go on third down, tied with the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the fourth-longest average in the league. That’s a tough place to live, and the Seahawks are making it tougher on themselves before they even get there.
Their early-down approach is part of the problem. Seattle ranks 25th in early-down rush attempts, according to SumerSports, but still runs the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
On second and 7 or more, the Seahawks pass just 52.5% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league. The result is a lot of wasted snaps and too many third-and-long situations.
That approach is especially hard to square with what the roster is doing well. Right now, Seattle looks more comfortable attacking through the air on early downs than trying to grind out drives on the ground, but the play calling still leans run-first. That mismatch has left the offense in a hole far too often.
The penalties haven’t helped either. The Seahawks already have nine offensive false starts this season, putting them halfway to their 2025 total, including the playoffs. Those kinds of drive-killing mistakes only make the third-down picture worse.
And then there’s the blitzing.
Opposing defenses are attacking Seattle’s passing game on third down at a higher rate than any other team in the league, and it isn’t close. Nearly 60 percent of the Seahawks’ dropbacks are being blitzed on third down, which is an absurd number to deal with on the money down.
The reason it looks so different on early downs is personnel. On first and second down, Seattle is heavily under center and regularly using 12, 13, or 21 personnel.
More than 60 percent of the time, the Seahawks are bringing at least one extra tight end and/or Brady Russell into the formation. But once third down arrives, they’re in 11 personnel at an 80 percent clip, which is not especially high by NFL standards.
That means the extra protection disappears, the play-action advantage disappears, and the defense knows a passing situation is coming.
So far, that’s not been a friendly setup for Sam Darnold. When Seattle can’t lean on play-action from heavier looks and condensed formations, the operation has looked messy.
There have been a few exceptions. One of the rare under center looks on a third-and-short turned into a touchdown to Tory Horton after Darnold checked into a pass from a run look. But those chances are limited, especially when the Seahawks keep landing in third-and-long.
Until Seattle gets out of those situations more consistently, or starts punishing the blitz when it comes, this isn’t going away. That’s a big reason the offense has looked worse than the three straight games of 30-plus points might suggest.
Of the Seahawks’ 13 touchdown drives, only four have included multiple third-down conversions. When the early-down plan works, the offense looks in control.
When it doesn’t, the whole thing starts to wobble.
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