The Seahawks have found something they can lean on offensively, and it’s not the part of the playbook most people would have guessed going in.
Seattle has been at its best when it gets heavy, lining up with zero, one or two wide receivers and leaning into tight ends and backs. That’s the direction Klint Kubiak’s offense was already heading, and the early returns under a first-time playcaller have kept that pattern alive. The Seahawks are in heavy sets 62% of the time, which ranks third in the league, and they’re making that usage count.
From heavy personnel, Seattle has posted a 0.07 EPA per play, good for eighth in the NFL and ninth when stacked against the entire league on any play. The success rate is 52.7%, also eighth in the league and second overall.
The explosive play rate sits at 13%, trailing only Buffalo and San Francisco. In short: when the Seahawks load up, they’re efficient, productive and capable of popping big plays.
The problem is what happens when they spread things out.
With three or more wide receivers on the field, Seattle has struggled to get much of anything going. The EPA per play drops to -0.12, which ranks 24th in the NFL and would be 29th overall.
The success rate falls to 38.2%, putting the Seahawks 27th in the league and 29th overall. The explosive play rate, at 9.6%, is at least workable, landing around 17th, but it hasn’t been enough to turn light personnel into a real strength.
That matters because this is supposed to be a team with receiving talent worth featuring. The addition of Rashid Shaheed was clearly meant to help unlock that part of the offense, but it hasn’t shown up yet. Right now, Seattle’s inability to do damage from lighter sets is one of the main things keeping the offense from opening up the way it wants to.
It also ties directly into the Seahawks’ third-down problems. Light personnel is usually where teams live in obvious passing situations, and Seattle’s struggles there line up with its ranking of 31st in the league in third down conversions. That’s a tough combination to live with, especially when the offense is converting only 31% of its third downs.
If there’s a clean answer, it starts with handling pressure better. The overall numbers don’t show a huge collapse against the blitz, but Darnold has been less efficient when defenses send extra rushers.
Last year, one of his biggest strengths was punishing the blitz with explosive plays. Getting back to that would go a long way toward changing the feel of this offense.
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