With just three weeks left in the regular season, the NFC playoff picture is shaping up to be a chaotic sprint to the finish. Nine teams are firmly in the mix for seven playoff spots, and while a few others are still mathematically alive, their chances are hanging by a thread. Right now, only two teams - the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks - have a clear path to the NFC’s top seed and that coveted first-round bye.
Let’s dive into how this playoff race is unfolding, with a close eye on Seattle’s high-stakes finish.
The NFC Wild Card Race: West vs. North
The Wild Card race is largely a battle between the NFC North and NFC West. It's likely that two teams come out of the West and one from the North - though there’s a slim chance that flips. What that means is simple: the NFC South and NFC East are probably sending just one team each to the postseason.
In the South, it’s a two-horse race between Carolina and Tampa Bay, both sitting at 7-7. They face off twice in the next three weeks, and if they split those games, Seattle suddenly becomes a major player in that division’s outcome - because sandwiched between those two Bucs-Panthers matchups is a game in which Carolina hosts Seattle. That game could shake up the seeding and the Wild Card picture in a big way.
Whoever wins the South likely grabs the No. 4 seed, which could set up a fascinating first-round matchup.
Eagles in Control, Cowboys on the Brink
The Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off a Super Bowl win, are in a strong position to lock up the No. 3 seed, but they’re still within striking distance of the No. 2 spot. All they need is one more win to officially eliminate Dallas from the division race.
The Cowboys aren’t part of the core nine teams in the playoff mix at the moment, but that could change quickly. If Philly stumbles against the Commanders and Dallas takes care of business against the Chargers, the door could reopen. For now, though, they’re on the outside looking in.
The NFC North: A Three-Team Showdown
The Chicago Bears hold a slim half-game lead over the Green Bay Packers, and a two-game edge over the Detroit Lions. But the Bears still have to face both of those teams - plus a surging 49ers squad - in the final stretch.
This weekend’s Bears-Packers clash is shaping up to be one of the biggest games of the year. If Chicago slips, their Week 18 matchup with Detroit could end up being a win-or-go-home scenario.
Now, before Micah Parsons’ injury last week, the Packers looked like the team to beat in the North - even trailing Chicago. But that injury throws everything into question. If Green Bay can knock off the Bears, they’ll close the season against the Ravens and Vikings, two teams that haven’t exactly lived up to expectations this year.
Right now, the best guess is that the North champ grabs the No. 2 seed, while the runner-up drops into the No. 6 or 7 spot.
The Lions, sitting on six losses, need to run the table and get some help. It’s a tough ask - but not impossible. If a few things break their way, Detroit could sneak into the playoffs as the final seed.
The NFC West: Rams vs. Seahawks for the Crown
Here’s where things get really interesting. The Rams and Seahawks are in a dead heat at the top of the NFC West, and both have a path to the No. 1 seed if they win out.
The Rams have the cleaner path. Even if they lose to Seattle this week, they’re still in position to finish 13-4 - a record that would likely be enough to take the division.
Seattle, meanwhile, could beat the Rams on Thursday and still miss out on the division title if they can’t take down San Francisco in Week 18.
The numbers suggest the Seahawks are trending toward the No. 5 seed, but that could drop if they stumble against the 49ers. It’s a razor-thin margin.
San Francisco: High Ceiling, Low Floor
The 49ers are one of the trickiest teams to figure out. They probably need to beat either Chicago or Seattle in the final two weeks to lock in a Wild Card spot. But there’s still a narrow path for them to win the division - and just as narrow a path to miss the playoffs entirely.
If things fall just right (or wrong), San Francisco could land anywhere from division champs to postseason spectators. Right now, they’re most likely headed for the No. 6 seed.
Seattle’s Path: Simple, But Not Easy
For the Seahawks, the mission is clear: win out, and they get the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Lose out, and they could be left sweating on the final day of the season - though even with three straight losses, they’d still have a decent shot at sliding in as the No. 7 seed.
The path ahead is brutal, but manageable:
- First, take care of the Rams at home on Thursday night. That would put Seattle in the driver’s seat for the division.
- Next, avoid a trap game against the suddenly scrappy Panthers on the road.
- Finally, head to the Bay Area and avenge that Week 1 loss to the 49ers - a game that could decide the division, playoff seeding, or even Seattle’s postseason fate.
It’s a high-wire act, but this is a team built to handle it. Mike Macdonald’s squad is healthy, the defense is flying around, and the special teams have been a weapon all year. If the offense can rediscover its rhythm, the Seahawks have the talent and toughness to run the table.
And even if they don’t? This group has already shown it can win on the road. Once you’re in the dance, anything can happen.