The NFC West is living up to its reputation as one of the NFL’s most competitive divisions-and with just two weeks left in the regular season, the race for both the division crown and the NFC’s top seed is officially a three-way sprint.
The 49ers added fuel to the fire with a Monday night win over the Colts, pushing their record to 11-4. That ties them with the Rams and puts both teams just one game behind the 12-3 Seahawks. So now, with the finish line in sight, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Let’s break down what’s next for each contender, what it means for playoff positioning, and how this wild NFC West race could shake out.
What’s Ahead for the NFC West’s Big Three
49ers (11-4):
San Francisco closes the season with two home games-and neither is a cakewalk.
First up: a Sunday night showdown against the 11-4 Bears, a team that leads the league in takeaways and is riding a two-game win streak. After that, it’s the big one: a Week 18 clash with the Seahawks, a game that could very well decide the division-and possibly the conference.
The league hasn’t set the time yet, but don’t be surprised if this one ends up under the primetime lights.
Seahawks (12-3):
Seattle finishes the regular season on the road.
They’ll travel to Carolina to face a scrappy 8-7 Panthers squad that’s still fighting for the NFC South crown. A win there, combined with a Buccaneers loss to the Dolphins, would clinch the division for Carolina-their first in a decade.
After that, it’s on to Santa Clara for that massive Week 18 matchup against the 49ers.
Rams (11-4):
The Rams have the softest landing.
They’ll visit the 6-9 Falcons this week, then host the 3-12 Cardinals to wrap up the regular season. Both opponents have already been eliminated from playoff contention, giving L.A. a clear path to finish strong-at least on paper.
Where the Seahawks Stand in the Race for the No. 1 Seed
Seattle came into Monday night holding a 53% chance to secure the NFC’s top seed. The 49ers’ win didn’t knock them off that perch-it just made the margin a little tighter. The Seahawks now sit at 48%, still ahead of the 49ers (27%) and Rams (11%) heading into Week 17.
One thing is off the table: Seattle can no longer clinch the No. 1 seed this Sunday. But that doesn’t mean they’re not in control of their destiny.
If all three NFC West teams win this weekend, Seattle’s odds stay steady at 53%. That’s how pivotal Week 18’s game against the 49ers will be.
Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Seattle
Best Case (Week 17):
The Seahawks win, while the Rams and 49ers both lose.
That would launch Seattle’s odds of clinching the top seed to 74%. From there, they’d have two paths to the No. 1 spot:
- Beat the 49ers in Week 18
- Or lose to the 49ers and get help from the Lions, who would need to beat the Bears
Worst Case (Week 17):
Seattle loses, while the Rams and 49ers win.
That would drop the Seahawks’ odds to just 7%. But they wouldn’t be out of it.
They’d still have a shot if they beat the 49ers in Week 18 and the Cardinals upset the Rams.
What About the Rams?
L.A. had control of its own destiny until last Thursday’s loss to the Seahawks. Now, they need help.
Here’s the cleanest path for the Rams to clinch the No. 1 seed:
- Win their final two games
- Hope the Seahawks and 49ers each lose one
- And get a Bears loss to the Lions
Why the Bears loss matters? It would give the Rams the edge in a potential tiebreaker, thanks to a better conference record.
Don’t Forget the Bears
Speaking of Chicago, they’re not just a spoiler-they’re still very much in the mix.
The Bears, now 11-4 after a dramatic comeback win over the Packers, currently hold the No. 2 seed in the NFC. And here’s the kicker: they own a better conference record than both the Seahawks and Rams. So if they can stay a game ahead, they could leapfrog into that top seed.
But it won’t be easy. They’ve got the 49ers on deck in Week 17-a game with huge implications for both teams.
The Bottom Line
For Seattle, the math is simple: win out, and the No. 1 seed is theirs. No need to scoreboard-watch, no need to rely on tiebreakers. Just take care of business.
But drop a game, and things get complicated fast. That’s when you start rooting for the Lions, for the Cardinals, and against your division rivals.
With three elite teams battling for one golden ticket, the NFC West is about to deliver a chaotic, high-stakes finish. Buckle up.
Week 17 is just the warm-up. Week 18?
That’s shaping up to be a heavyweight title fight.