Seattle Seahawks Eye No. 1 Seed, But Here's the Playoff Scenario They Don't Want
The Seattle Seahawks weren’t supposed to be this good. Not after trading away Geno Smith and handing the keys to Sam Darnold.
Not with a retooled offense and a defense that had its fair share of questions entering the season. Sure, they were expected to be in the playoff mix, but few saw them sitting atop the NFC with two games to go.
Yet here they are-owners of the conference’s No. 1 seed after a statement win over the Los Angeles Rams. They've officially punched their playoff ticket, and now they’re in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye in the 2026 NFL playoffs.
But if this season has taught us anything, it’s that nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. The margin between cruising into January and crashing out early is razor thin.
So let’s talk about the one scenario Seattle really wants to avoid.
The Floor: Wild Card Woes
Let’s start with the good news: the Seahawks are in. No matter what happens in these final two games, they’re playoff-bound.
But that doesn’t mean they’re safe. A stumble down the stretch could knock them off the NFC West throne and out of that coveted top seed.
That would drop them into Wild Card territory-and that’s where things get dicey.
If Seattle loses its next two games and another NFC contender surges, they could find themselves playing on the road in the first round. That’s a far cry from resting up on Wild Card weekend and hosting a Divisional Round game in the noise factory that is Lumen Field.
The Rams: A Familiar, Frustrating Matchup
Now, the absolute worst-case scenario? Facing the Rams again in the Wild Card round.
Yes, the same Rams team they just beat to claim the top seed. And yes, the same Rams team that gave them fits earlier this season.
Seattle and LA split their regular-season series, but that doesn’t tell the full story. The Rams dominated the first meeting, and in the rematch, the Seahawks had to claw their way back from a 16-point hole. There’s just something about the Rams’ scheme and personnel that seems to bring out the worst in Seattle.
The good news? It’s highly unlikely.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, there’s less than a 1% chance the Seahawks and Rams meet in the first round. But if the football gods get mischievous, that’s a matchup Seattle would love to avoid.
The Real Threat: Philadelphia
The more realistic-and arguably more dangerous-Wild Card opponent? The Philadelphia Eagles.
Now, on the surface, the Eagles don’t look like the juggernaut they were last year. It’s been a rocky season, and there’s been plenty of internal turbulence.
But this is still the reigning Super Bowl champion we’re talking about, and their core is intact. They’ve got firepower on offense and a defense that can wreck a game plan in a hurry.
And that brings us to Sam Darnold.
Darnold’s been solid this season, but there’s a pattern worth watching: when the pressure ramps up, his play tends to dip. That was the knock on him when Seattle brought him in, and it’s still a concern heading into the postseason. The offensive line has done a commendable job-Sharp Football Analysis ranks them fifth in pressure rate allowed at 32.8%-but the Eagles bring a different kind of heat.
Philly’s defensive front is relentless. They’re pressuring opposing quarterbacks on 40.4% of dropbacks, sixth-best in the league.
And with Vic Fangio dialing up the schemes, they don’t need to blitz to get home. That’s a dangerous combination against a quarterback who’s still proving he can thrive under duress.
Add in Seattle’s vulnerability in the secondary-they’re allowing 209.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 15th-and you’ve got the makings of a potential mismatch. If the Eagles can protect the ball and let their stars go to work, they’re capable of turning a Wild Card game into a slugfest.
What’s at Stake
The Seahawks have earned their spot near the top of the NFC, but the job isn’t done. Two games remain, and the margin for error is slim. Holding onto the No. 1 seed means rest, home-field advantage, and a clearer path to the NFC Championship.
Lose that top spot, and the road gets much rougher-literally and figuratively.
So while the Seahawks should feel good about what they’ve accomplished, they know what’s at stake. The difference between a first-round bye and a first-round brawl could come down to how they finish these next two weeks.
And if they want to avoid a date with Philadelphia or a third showdown with the Rams, they’ll need to keep their foot on the gas.