The Seattle Seahawks are heading into Week 7 with a mix of good news and bad news on the injury front. Zach Charbonnet was initially expected to return after being a full participant in practice, but he has since been ruled out. Anthony Bradford, though, is set to come back, which means the Seahawks can move on from the frustrating right guard rotation.
That sets the stage for a tough home matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who arrive with one of the league’s top offenses and a Steve Spagnuolo-coordinated defense. Seattle will also be in its throwback uniforms in front of the 12’s, trying to hold up against a team that has been one of the NFL’s most efficient.
By the numbers, the Seahawks have been a strange team to pin down. FTN has them 10th in Total DVOA, but the splits are lopsided: 24th on offense, second on defense, and 14th on special teams. Sumer Sports paints a similar picture, with Seattle first in total EPA on defense and second in EPA per play, while the offense checks in 28th in total EPA and 25th in EPA per play.
Seattle’s season-long results show that imbalance too. The Seahawks own the seventh-best point differential in the league at +26 and a margin of victory of 4.3. They’re averaging 24.7 points per game and allowing 20.3.
Kansas City, meanwhile, brings a much cleaner profile. FTN ranks the Chiefs second in Total DVOA, with the third-ranked offense, 12th-ranked defense, and 26th-ranked special teams. Sumer Sports has them third on defense in total EPA and EPA per play, while the offense sits fifth in total EPA and fourth in EPA per play.
The Chiefs’ overall production reflects that. They have the second-best point differential in the league at +57, with a margin of victory of 11.4. Kansas City is scoring 28 points per game and giving up 16.6.
Using those averages, the first projection lands at 24-21, Chiefs. A second look at the margin of victory produces 24-13, also in Kansas City’s favor.
A player-by-player scoring breakdown keeps pointing back to the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is averaging two touchdowns per game, which accounts for 12 points.
Kansas City has seven rushing touchdowns, six from Kenneth Walker and one from Mahomes, suggesting at least one more ground score. Travis Kelce and Walker each have two receiving touchdowns, making them the most likely pass-game finishers.
Harrison Butker’s kicking numbers also matter here. He’s made 10 of 13 field goals for a 76.6% success rate and 14 of 15 extra points at 93.3%. That points to a likely combination of extra points and two field goals, pushing Kansas City to 27.
Seattle’s scoring path looks similar on paper. Sam Darnold is averaging about two touchdowns a game, which starts the Seahawks at 12 points.
The Seahawks average one rushing touchdown per game, and Emanuel Wilson is the likely name attached to that score. On the receiving side, seven of Seattle’s 11 receiving touchdowns belong to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, making him the obvious candidate for both passing scores.
Jason Myers adds another layer. He has made 12 of 13 field goals this season, good for 92.3%, and 14 of 15 extra points, which is 93.3%. With the way the scoring is laid out, that puts Seattle at 27 as well.
That creates the tie. The tiebreaker, as laid out by the analytics, leans on the broader team rankings.
Seattle has the edge in defensive DVOA, special teams DVOA, and defensive EPA and defensive EPA per play. Kansas City leads in Total DVOA, offensive DVOA, offensive EPA, and offensive EPA per play.
Special teams may be the separator. Seattle’s special teams rank 14th, while Kansas City sits 28th.
Pro Football Reference also has the Seahawks sixth in kick and punt return and the Chiefs 21st. If Butker makes one fewer field goal than expected, and Seattle can create better field position by forcing return fumbles like it has in recent games, that swing could decide it.
Under that scenario, subtracting one Chiefs field goal drops Kansas City to 24.
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Uchenna Nwosu has played well enough to make himself expensive, while Drew Locks work as a backup has put him in line for a multi-year deal. The picture is less settled for Ty Okada, whose standing is clouded by both his performance and Bud Clarks emergence, and Anthony Bradfords absence offered a reminder of how much he matters up front, a factor that could help him land another contract. [Read more 🡒]