With Sam Darnold back in the starting lineup this week against the Washington Commanders, Drew Lock is sliding back into the backup role. That has opened the door to a simple question around Seattle: if Lock has played well in limited starts and quarterback injuries are piling up around the league, should the Seahawks move him now?
The temptation is understandable. Lock is on an expiring contract, and Jalen Milroe is already on the roster as a possible backup option. In theory, Seattle could turn Lock into a draft pick before he walks in free agency next offseason.
But that line of thinking comes with real risk for a team that believes it can win a Super Bowl.
The biggest problem is the obvious one: injuries happen in the NFL all the time. The Seahawks may not expect Darnold to miss time again this season, but that is hardly a guarantee.
And if he does go down, can Seattle really trust Milroe to handle meaningful quarterback snaps right now? Outside of the week three preseason game against the Kansas City Chiefs last month, Milroe has looked more like a developmental project than a quarterback ready to step in and play in an NFL game.
Maybe by 2027 he gets to that point. Right now, asking him to be one snap away from real action would be playing with fire.
Lock, on the other hand, has already shown Seattle he can keep the offense moving and help the team win games if called on again. Even Daniel Jeremiah has said that the Seahawks can win a Super Bowl with Drew Lock.
The return argument is not much stronger. Yes, Seattle could try to cash him out now rather than lose him later, but the market for a rental quarterback probably would not be rich.
A useful comparison is the deal that sent Joe Flacco from the Cleveland Browns to the Cincinnati Bengals midway through last season, when Cincinnati gave up a 5th round pick for Flacco and a 6th round pick. Lock is younger than Flacco, but the same basic issue applies: a team trading for him would only be getting a short-term answer.
That makes it hard to imagine Seattle getting anything better than an early day three pick.
And even that may not be worth it, especially with the Seahawks already sitting on a bunch of 2027 draft capital after the trade for cornerback Avery Smith earlier this season.
There is also the compensatory-pick angle. If Lock leaves in free agency after the season, Seattle could still land draft compensation for him anyway. The 2026 NFL compensatory picks offer a useful guide: the Philadelphia Eagles got a third round pick for losing Milton Williams, who signed with the New England Patriots for an average of $26 million per year, while the San Francisco 49ers got a fourth round pick for losing Aaron Banks, who signed with the Green Bay Packers for an average of $19.25 million per year.
That gives Seattle a legitimate shot at a 4th or even 3rd round pick if Lock lands a deal worth more than $20 million per year next offseason. That number is not outlandish after the way he has played over the last two games.
Two contracts that can help frame Lock’s market are Jacoby Brissett and Malik Willis. Brissett recently signed a new deal with the Arizona Cardinals that averages $15.5 million per year, while Willis signed last offseason with the Miami Dolphins at $22.5 million per year.
Lock’s value could wind up closer to Willis because he would be a true free agent and could draw a bidding war. His age also fits that comparison better: Lock is 29, closer to Willis at 27 than Brissett at 33.
Put it all together, and the case against a trade gets pretty clear. Seattle is likely to be in line for a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick if Lock departs in free agency, and there is little reason to move him unless another team is willing to beat that value. The odds of getting more than a 3rd round pick for a rental quarterback are slim to none.
For the Seahawks, that makes keeping Drew Lock the sensible play.
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Darnold already showed last season that this matchup can suit him, completing most of his throws and lighting up Washington for four scores. For Seattle, that history only adds to the appeal of getting its quarterback back in a game where the passing lanes could be there again, even if the bigger question is how quickly he settles back in after the injury layoff. [Read more 🡒]