Week 8 wraps with a Monday night matchup that carries real weight in the NFC race, as the Chicago Bears travel to face the Seattle Seahawks with playoff positioning very much in play.
Both teams are sitting in the wild card conversation, and the head-to-head result could matter down the line if these clubs are still fighting for seeding. Seattle enters off a primetime win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7, and the Seahawks have backed that up with one of the league’s best defenses, ranking No. 2 in the NFL in EPA/Play and No. 1 in yards per play allowed through seven weeks.
Chicago comes in with a little extra rest after its Thursday night win in Week 7, and the Bears are 5-2 overall. Caleb Williams has been a major reason for that start, with three wins in four starts from the former No. 1 overall pick. He’s also in the MVP mix and is chasing a third straight 300-yard passing game.
The question now is whether he can do it against Seattle’s defense.
Oddsmakers have the defending champs favored at home, but Chicago has been a profitable team for bettors whenever Williams has started and finished a game this season. With that in mind, the SI Betting team has lined up several plays for Monday night’s showdown.
One of the strongest opinions comes from Iain MacMillan, who made the Bears his upset pick of the week in his Road to 272 column.
"I'm ready to believe in the Chicago Bears. Ben Johnson is clearly the real deal as head coach, and Caleb Williams has improved significantly since last season.
Last season, he ranked 39th out of 45 starting quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected. This season, he ranks first at +9.0%.
The Bears' defense has also been better than people expected this season, ranking fourth in the NFL in opponent success rate.
I still have some concerns surrounding the Seattle offense. It did enough to beat the Chiefs last week, but their running game is still weak, and Sam Darnold hasn't been as efficient as he was a year ago."
MacMillan also turned to the Bears’ passing game and faded Rome Odunze on Monday night. The former first-round pick has been productive overall, catching 24 of 38 targets for 381 yards while playing 84.9 percent of Chicago’s offensive snaps. Still, his weekly volume has been uneven, with only two games of more than three catches and seven or fewer targets in six of seven appearances.
That’s enough for MacMillan to look elsewhere against a Seattle defense that has been stingy against the pass.
"With that usage, I’m going to fade Odunze on Monday against a Seattle defense that is No. 2 in the NFL in EPA/Pass through seven weeks.
Odunze doesn’t have nearly a big enough target share in Ben Johnson’s offense to trust to have one of his best games of the season against this elite defense."
Another angle from MacMillan’s Player Prop Countdown points to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Chicago’s secondary has been vulnerable to splash plays, giving up nine receptions of 40-plus yards, which is two more than any other team, along with 21 completions of 20-plus yards. With Smith-Njigba expected to be heavily involved, MacMillan is backing him to connect on at least one catch of 30-plus yards.
There’s also a touchdown angle on the Bears’ side involving Colston Loveland. The second-year tight end has scored in back-to-back games and has caught 13 of 19 targets over that span.
Loveland started slowly in 2026, but Williams has clearly leaned on him in the red zone. Seattle has limited tight ends to 241 yards and two touchdowns this season, but Loveland’s recent role has been enough to make him a live play at north of 2/1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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