The NFC West isn’t just a division race-it’s the epicenter of the NFC playoff picture. With four weeks to go in the regular season, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are locked in at 10-3, while the San Francisco 49ers are right behind them at 9-4.
That’s three of the NFC’s top five teams battling it out in one division, and the stakes? They couldn’t be higher.
This isn’t just about bragging rights or playoff berths. This is about the No. 1 seed in the NFC-home-field advantage and the conference’s only first-round bye.
According to projections from The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, there’s an 85% chance the top seed comes out of the NFC West. The Rams lead the way with a 48% shot, followed by the Seahawks at 28% and the 49ers at 9%.
The only other teams with a real shot are the 9-3-1 Green Bay Packers (10%) and the 9-4 Chicago Bears (4%).
And here’s where it gets even more interesting: the NFL’s playoff format guarantees the top four seeds to division winners. That means the best a second-place team in the NFC West could do is the No. 5 seed-even if their record is better than other division champs.
For Seattle, that’s the difference between playing at home with a week off and hitting the road in the Wild Card round. That’s a massive swing.
So what needs to happen for the Seahawks to rise above the chaos and claim the NFC West-and possibly the No. 1 seed?
Let’s start with where things stand. Seattle’s dropped games to both of their division rivals: a 17-13 loss to the 49ers in Week 1 and a 21-19 heartbreaker to the Rams in Week 11.
But they’ll get another crack at both teams down the stretch. The Seahawks host the Rams in a pivotal Week 16 matchup and close the regular season on the road against the 49ers in Week 18.
Their path is tough, but it’s also in their hands.
Here’s how the remaining schedules stack up:
Rams: vs. Lions (8-5), at Seahawks (10-3), at Falcons (4-9), vs.
Cardinals (3-10)
Seahawks: vs.
Colts (8-5), vs. Rams (10-3), at Panthers (7-6), at 49ers (9-4)
49ers: vs. Titans (2-11), at Colts (8-5), vs.
Bears (9-4), vs. Seahawks (10-3)
Now, let’s break down what different outcomes mean for Seattle’s chances of winning the division-and the coveted No. 1 seed.
If the Seahawks win out and finish 14-3
- NFC West title odds: 100%
- No. 1 seed odds: 100%
This is the dream scenario. If Seattle runs the table, they clinch the division and the top seed.
No tiebreakers, no scoreboard watching-just handle business. It would mark their first NFC West title since 2020 and their first No. 1 seed since the Super Bowl runs of 2013 and 2014.
If the Seahawks finish 13-4 with a loss to the Rams
- NFC West title odds: 13%
- No. 1 seed odds: 11%
This is where things get dicey. A loss to L.A. severely damages Seattle’s tiebreaker position.
Even if they win their other three games, they’d likely need help to win the division. That Week 16 rematch against the Rams is shaping up to be a must-win.
If the Seahawks finish 13-4 with a loss to the 49ers
- NFC West title odds: 37%
- No. 1 seed odds: 30%
A loss to San Francisco in Week 18 would be a brutal way to end the season. Not only would it give the Niners the season sweep, but it would also put Seattle in a tough spot in any head-to-head or three-way tiebreaker. Beating the Rams might not be enough if they can’t close it out in Santa Clara.
If the Seahawks finish 13-4 with a loss to the Panthers
- NFC West title odds: 54%
- No. 1 seed odds: 44%
This is one of the more forgiving scenarios. If Seattle takes care of business in the division but stumbles against Carolina, they still have a decent shot.
The key is beating both the Rams and 49ers. Drop one of those, and the path narrows fast.
If the Seahawks finish 13-4 with a loss to the Colts
- NFC West title odds: 54%
- No. 1 seed odds: 47%
Similar to the Panthers scenario. A loss to the Colts wouldn’t be ideal, but if Seattle bounces back with wins over the Rams and 49ers, they’d still be very much in the mix. That Week 15 game against Indy is a potential trap-one they can’t afford to overlook.
If the Seahawks finish 12-5 or worse
At that point, Seattle would need a lot of help.
The Rams and 49ers would have to stumble down the stretch, and even then, the tiebreakers likely wouldn’t go Seattle’s way. Realistically, 13 wins feels like the minimum to win the West this year.
Bottom Line
The Seahawks are in control of their destiny, but the margin for error is razor-thin. Every game from here on out is essentially a playoff game, especially the two looming division showdowns.
Win those, and Seattle could be looking at a first-round bye and a playoff run that goes through Lumen Field. Slip up, and they could be staring down a cross-country Wild Card trip.
It’s December football in the NFC West-and it doesn’t get much better than this.