The 2025 NFL season has been nothing short of chaos - and Week 15 only added fuel to the fire. Two of the league’s early Super Bowl favorites, the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, continued their dramatic slides, while the playoff picture in both conferences began to sharpen with just three weeks left in the regular season.
Chiefs Crash Out, Lions on Life Support
Let’s start with the stunner in Kansas City. Back in Week 8, the Chiefs were sitting pretty at +500 in the Super Bowl odds, looking like a team ready to make another deep run.
Fast-forward eight weeks, and they’re out of the playoff picture entirely. Their latest loss - a home defeat to the Chargers - sealed their fate.
It’s only the second time since 2020 that Kansas City won’t be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, and the first time since 2014 that they’ll miss the postseason altogether.
The fall has been steep. Kansas City has dropped five of its last six games, and with Patrick Mahomes sidelined due to a season-ending knee injury, the offense never found its rhythm.
Add in an aging core and a defense that couldn’t carry the load, and the result is a team that went from contender to eliminated in less than two months. The offseason questions will be loud in K.C., and for the first time in a long time, they’ll be watching January football from home.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s once-promising season is hanging by a thread. The Lions were the darlings of the NFC earlier this year, climbing to +650 in the Super Bowl odds and holding the top NFC spot from Week 6 through Week 10. But their Week 15 loss to the Rams was a gut punch - not just because of the score, but because of what it means for their playoff chances.
The Lions are now clinging to a 27% shot at the postseason, down from about 40% before the Rams game. They’ve gone 5-5 over their last 10 games, alternating wins and losses each week - a pattern that’s left them no margin for error.
To have any real shot, they likely need to win out against the Steelers, Vikings, and Bears. Even then, it’s not entirely in their control.
If Detroit runs the table, their playoff chances jump to 95%, but they’ll still need help. Either the Bears need to lose one of their next two games (against the Packers or 49ers) before Detroit faces them in Week 18, or the Packers need to drop two of their final three (Bears, Ravens, Vikings).
That’s the cleanest path. But there’s a nightmare scenario where Detroit wins out - including a win over Chicago - and still gets left out.
That would require the 49ers to win just one of their final three games (Colts, Bears, Seahawks), which would give San Francisco the tiebreaker edge over Detroit due to conference wins. In other words, even 11-6 might not be enough.
The good news? Detroit is favored by about a touchdown this week against Pittsburgh. But the margin for error is officially gone.
NFC West Takes Center Stage
While Detroit and Kansas City fade, the NFC West is heating up. The Rams and Seahawks, sitting at +350 and +700 respectively in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds, both notched Week 15 wins to set up a massive showdown on Thursday night.
Los Angeles held off the Lions in a statement win, while Seattle survived a scare from the Philip Rivers-led Colts. That sets the stage for a prime-time battle that could swing not just the NFC West title, but the entire conference playoff race.
The Rams won the first meeting between these two teams a month ago, 21-19, and looked like a juggernaut - until a Week 13 stumble in Carolina cracked the door open. Now, Seattle has a chance to even the season series and potentially leapfrog L.A. in the standings.
The key matchup? Sam Darnold vs. the Rams’ defense.
Darnold has been quietly impressive over the past two seasons, with a 25-7 record as a starter. But when it comes to facing the Rams, it’s been a different story.
He’s 0-3 against Los Angeles, including a playoff loss last season when he was with the Vikings. In that game, the Rams sacked him nine times.
In their most recent meeting, they picked him off four times.
If Darnold can avoid the big mistakes, Seattle has the defense to keep this one tight. But history suggests the Rams’ pressure-heavy front could once again be the difference.
Don’t forget about San Francisco, either. The 49ers are just one game back in the division and still have a Week 18 date with Seattle. Their Monday night matchup in Indianapolis looms large, and at +2000 in the Super Bowl odds, they’re still lurking as a serious threat.
AFC Picture Shifts as Bills, Broncos Rise
With Kansas City out and Baltimore potentially on the ropes, the AFC is wide open - and two teams are making their move.
The Buffalo Bills (+800) reminded everyone why they’re still dangerous with a comeback win on the road against the Patriots. It’s been a rollercoaster year for Buffalo, but with Josh Allen under center, they remain arguably the most dangerous team left in the AFC field. The win pushed the Bills into the sixth seed, and more importantly, sent a message: they’re not going quietly.
New England’s loss also helped Denver, who now sits atop the AFC playoff standings after holding off the Packers. The Broncos (+850) have been one of the league’s most consistent teams down the stretch, and with two playoff-caliber opponents left - Jacksonville and the Chargers - they’ll have chances to prove they’re legit.
Their Week 17 trip to Kansas City, once a daunting task, now looks far more manageable with Mahomes out and the Chiefs already eliminated. If Denver can stay the course, they could be looking at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs - something that didn’t seem possible just a few weeks ago.
Final Stretch: Three Weeks, Countless Scenarios
Three weeks remain, and the playoff race is anything but settled. The NFC West is a three-team brawl.
The AFC has new contenders rising while old powers fall. And teams like Detroit are fighting for their postseason lives with no guarantees.
The Super Bowl odds are shifting by the week, and with every snap, the stakes get higher. Buckle up - the wild ride of the 2025 season is far from over.