Thursday night’s Week 6 matchup brings together two teams that reached their conference championship games in the 2025 campaign, but they arrive in very different spots.
The defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks head to Denver looking to strengthen their grip in the NFC West, while the Broncos try to rebound after a season in which they fell to the New England Patriots in the AFC title game without Bo Nix. Both teams are 3-2 after five weeks, though Seattle has a couple of results it would like back - the loss to Washington and the turnover-filled Week 5 defeat against San Francisco.
Even with those stumbles, Seattle comes into this one laying 2.5 points on the road. That’s a sign of respect, and it makes sense given the way the Seahawks are playing on both sides of the ball. Denver’s offense has been a bottom-10 unit this season, and even with Sean Payton taking over the playcalling in Week 5, the attack didn’t fully wake up in the comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers until the fourth quarter.
That’s a shaky setup against a Seattle defense that ranks No. 2 in EPA/Play. And on the other side, the Seahawks’ offense has a clear centerpiece right now in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who keeps stacking monster stat lines.
In Week 5, he caught five passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Through five weeks, he’s up to 603 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and he has cleared 100 yards in all but one game this season.
The matchup could get even better for him if Denver’s secondary remains shorthanded. Starting cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss both missed Week 5, and star safety Talanoa Hufanga was injured in the win over the Chargers. If those three can’t go on Thursday, Smith-Njigba looks poised to have another huge night.
That’s part of why Seattle feels like the stronger side here, even on a short week. The Broncos did show they can be tough at home, going 2-0 against the spread this season, but the combination of injuries and a sputtering offense is hard to ignore. Denver also ranks 24th in EPA/Play on offense, and against an elite Seattle defense, this could end up looking more like its Week 1 showing against Kansas City than the late rally against the Chargers.
Seattle’s road profile adds another layer. Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks have covered 13 of 19 road games, and that road comfort makes the points less appealing. The pick here is to back the defending champs to win outright and pass on the spread.
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