The San Francisco 49ers are sitting at 9-4 heading into Week 15, and while that record would have most teams feeling pretty comfortable, the NFC West isn’t your average division. With both the Seahawks and Rams ahead of them in the standings, the 49ers are still very much in the thick of a divisional dogfight - even after navigating a season rocked by injuries to key defensive stars like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.
Let’s break down where things stand for the Niners as they prepare to face the Tennessee Titans, and what’s at stake in terms of playoff positioning and the NFC West crown.
Playoff Picture: 49ers Still in Control - But Barely
According to data shared by NFL.com’s Ali Bhanpuri, the 49ers have a 90% chance of making the playoffs as they enter Week 15. That’s a strong number - a testament to how well this team has weathered adversity - but it’s also a reminder that nothing is locked in just yet.
A win over the Titans this week would bump those playoff odds up to 93%. But here’s where it gets interesting: a loss would drop them down to 76%.
That’s a steep fall for a team that would still be 9-5, but it speaks to how tight the NFC playoff race really is. With teams like the Lions, Cowboys, and even the Panthers lurking, one slip-up could open the door for someone else to sneak in.
A Long Shot at the No. 1 Seed
The 49ers also remain in the conversation - albeit barely - for the top seed in the NFC. Their odds of earning that coveted first-round bye sit at 7%, which puts them behind the Packers, Rams, and Seahawks. So yes, the path is narrow, but it’s not completely closed off.
To make that kind of run, the 49ers would need to win out and get some help from the rest of the conference. That’s a tall order, but not impossible - especially with their remaining schedule.
NFC West Race: Still Alive, But Needing Help
Now for the division. The 49ers have just a 10% chance of taking the NFC West title, according to Bhanpuri’s projections.
The Rams lead the way with a 55% chance, while the Seahawks are at 35%. That puts San Francisco firmly in the underdog role - but the math isn’t working against them just yet.
The 49ers’ final stretch includes matchups against the Titans, Colts, Bears, and a potentially decisive Week 18 clash with the Seahawks. It’s a manageable slate, and if the Rams and Seahawks each drop at least one more game, San Francisco could find itself right back in the mix for the division crown. In that scenario, tiebreakers could come into play - and the 49ers might just have the edge.
Big Picture: Battle-Tested and Still Standing
This season hasn’t gone according to script for the 49ers, but that’s what makes their current position all the more impressive. With Warner and Bosa missing significant time, and the NFC West proving to be as deep and competitive as ever, a 9-4 record is no small feat.
The 49ers don’t control their own destiny when it comes to the division, but they’re in a strong spot to secure a playoff berth - and once you’re in, anything can happen. If they can string together a few more wins and catch a couple of breaks, this team could be a real problem in January.
For now, all eyes turn to Tennessee. A win keeps the momentum rolling and the playoff odds climbing.
A loss? It makes the road steeper - but not impassable.
One thing’s for sure: the 49ers are still very much in the fight.